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CVNA

Carvana Co

NYSE: CVNA · CONSUMER CYCLICAL · AUTO & TRUCK DEALERSHIPS

$395.80
-0.20% today

Updated 2026-04-30

Market cap
$87.46B
P/E ratio
45.86
P/S ratio
4.30x
EPS (TTM)
$8.63
Dividend yield
—
52W range
$253 – $487
Volume
3.3M
OverviewPrice TargetsFinancialsValuationInsidersEarnings

Carvana Co (CVNA) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030

Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.

Price target summary

Current
$395.80
Consensus
$434.00
+9.65%
2030 Target
$3,327.45
+740.69%
DCF
$225.59
-61.39% MoS
24 analysts:
12 Buy6 Hold1 Sell

Management guidance

Carvana management has articulated an ambitious long-term vision targeting 3 million annual unit sales and 13.5% Adjusted EBITDA margin within 4-9 years (2030-2035 timeframe). For near-term growth, CEO Ernest Garcia III's recent equity raise of $1.23B and focus on vertical integration, automation, and same-day delivery expansion in high-density markets (Los Angeles, etc.) signal aggressive unit growth targeting 20-40% CAGR in retail units sold over the next 4-10 years, per William Blair analyst commentary reflecting management positioning.

Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence

Revenue & price projection

Actual revenue Projected revenue Base case Bull to bear range
Bull case (2030)
$5,556.21
$61.2B Rev × 20x P/S
Base case (2030)
$3,327.45
$61.2B Rev × 12x P/S
Bear case (2030)
$2,228.76
$61.2B Rev × 8x P/S

Financial forecast — research-backed

Metric2023202420252026 (E)2027 (E)2028 (E)2029 (E)2030 (E)
Revenue$10.8B$13.7B$20.3B$27.3B$33.8B$41.8B$50.9B$61.2B
Revenue growth—26.9%48.6%34.5%23.5%23.6%22.0%20.1%
EPS$-3.52$1.62$8.06$7.13$10.00$12.80$15.20$17.80
P/S ratio———12.0x12.0x12.0x12.0x12.0x
Implied price———$1,475.38$1,852.07$2,260.15$2,762.41$3,327.45

Catalysts & risks

Growth catalysts
+ 5-for-1 stock split approval (May 5, 2026 shareholder vote) — increases employee retention and retail accessibility
+ Same-day delivery expansion to major metros (Los Angeles, other high-density markets) — drives unit velocity and gross profit per unit improvement
+ Vertical integration of Adesa acquisition — improves margins and supply chain efficiency targeting 3M unit capacity
+ S&P 500 inclusion announcement — drives institutional demand and valuation expansion
+ Achievement of 3M annual retail unit sales target — validates long-term business model scaling
Key risks
- Macroeconomic sensitivity — consumer cyclical exposure; rising interest rates reduce financing affordability for subprime customers
- Accounting scrutiny — Gotham City Research allegations of earnings overstatement create regulatory and reputational risk
- Rising operational costs — reconditioning, fulfillment, and logistics inflation pressuring margins despite revenue growth
- Leverage and liquidity — $1.64 debt/equity ratio; reliance on auto loan securitization for funding; negative free cash flow
- Competitive intensity — CarMax, traditional dealers, and new entrants (Carvana's vertical integration advantage faces erosion from dealer innovation)

Methodology

Carvana Co's forward estimates are derived from AI-powered research synthesis combining analyst consensus from 24 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts from industry research. Revenue and EPS projections use analyst consensus where available and conservative extrapolation with growth deceleration for outer years. Price targets are calculated using a tiered Price-to-Sales (P/S) methodology, where the P/S multiple is determined by the projected revenue growth rate.

WallStSmart proprietary research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: April 6, 2026.