CTRE
CareTrust REIT Inc.
NYSE: CTRE · REAL ESTATE · REIT - HEALTHCARE FACILITIES
$40.55
+1.42% today
Updated 2026-06-05
Market cap
$8.71B
P/E ratio
23.32
P/S ratio
16.66x
EPS (TTM)
$1.58
Dividend yield
3.80%
52W range
$27 – $43
Volume
2.2M
CareTrust REIT Inc. (CTRE) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed CTRE price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$40.55
Today
Analyst consensus
$42.82
+5.60% · 12M
2030 Base
$45.61
+12.48% future
NPV today
$30.92
@ 9% WACC
13 analysts:
11 Buy1 Hold1 Sell
Management guidance
CareTrust REIT raised FY 2026 normalized FFO per share guidance to $2.00-$2.04 (from prior guidance), representing 5-7% growth YoY. Management disclosed $1.1B in investments closed/committed YTD 2026, significantly exceeding historical pace, with continued M&A pipeline strength. CEO commentary emphasizes diversification into senior housing and UK care homes as structural growth drivers beyond traditional skilled nursing facilities.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
CTRE · CareTrust REIT Inc. · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$20.34
NPV today: $13.79
Base case (2030)
$45.61
NPV today: $30.92
Bull case (2030)
$91.10
NPV today: $61.75
WallStSmart.com
CTRE financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $0.5B | $0.6B | $0.8B | $0.9B | $1.1B | $1.2B |
| Revenue growth | 108.8% | 18.6% | 26.5% | 22.4% | 16.0% | 14.8% |
| Net margin | — | 59.9% | 56.2% | 54.0% | 51.5% | 50.5% |
| EPS | $1.35 | $1.52 | $1.78 | $2.05 | $2.28 | $2.55 |
| Diluted shares | — | 236M | 237M | 237M | 237M | 237M |
| Net debt | — | $599.58M | $478.84M | $333.95M | $164.91M | $-28.28M |
| P/S multiple | — | 9.0x | 9.0x | 9.0x | 9.0x | 9.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $20.30 | $26.49 | $32.78 | $39.15 | $45.61 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.2B | $1.2B | $1.2B |
| P/S multiple | 4.0x | 9.0x | 18.0x |
| Diluted shares | 237M | 237M | 237M |
| Net debt | $-28.28M | $-28.28M | $-28.28M |
| Implied P/E † | 8x | 18x | 36x |
| 2030 Price | $20.34 | $45.61 | $91.10 |
| NPV @ 9% | $13.79 | $30.92 | $61.75 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because CTRE is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $45.61 base case
CTRE catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ Acquisition pipeline acceleration: $1.1B YTD 2026 investments suggest $1.5B-$2.0B annual run rate; diversification into senior housing and UK care adds higher-growth segments vs. core SNF
+ Capital market flexibility: $509M forward equity offering + $1B ATM program provides dry powder for acquisitions without near-term dilution (settlement May 2027)
+ Dividend growth trajectory: 10 consecutive years of increases; 3.65% yield on raising trend supports institutional demand and REIT multiple sustainability
+ Portfolio mix shift: Senior housing and UK expansion into higher-margin, faster-growing verticals vs. mature SNF market; UK care homes show 15-20% organic growth potential
Key risks
- Medicaid reimbursement pressure: SNF operators face structural headwinds from state Medicaid rate compression; ~65% of SNF residents are Medicaid-funded, directly impacting tenant cashflows and rent coverage
- Integration execution risk: Rapid deployment of $1.1B+ annual capex across new geographies (UK) and property types (senior housing) introduces execution, operational, and cultural integration risks
- Share dilution: Forward offering of 12.5M shares (5.3% of float) + ATM program create dilution vector; FFO per share growth may lag revenue growth if dilution accelerates
- Interest rate / refinancing risk: Healthcare REIT sector sensitive to rate environment; rising rates could slow acquisition pace and increase cost of capital for debt-financed growth
Methodology · CareTrust REIT Inc. 2030 stock forecast model
CareTrust REIT Inc. 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 13 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (1% cumulative for CTRE by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($-28.28M by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 9% WACC (CAPM: beta 0.789) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 4.0x / base 9.0x / bull 18.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 21, 2026.
CTRE price target FAQ
What is the CTRE price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's CareTrust REIT Inc. 2030 base case is $45.61 per share, with a bull case of $91.10 and bear case of $20.34. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 9% WACC is $30.92.
How is the CareTrust REIT Inc. 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The CTRE 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the CTRE price target account for dilution?
CareTrust REIT Inc. is projected to grow diluted share count from 236M to 237M by 2030 (a 1% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 1%.
What is the analyst consensus on CTRE stock?
13 analysts cover CTRE with an average 12-month price target of $42.82. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.