CRDO
Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd
NASDAQ: CRDO · TECHNOLOGY · SEMICONDUCTORS
$250.81
-5.27% today
Updated 2026-06-12
Market cap
$46.26B
P/E ratio
137.05
P/S ratio
34.65x
EPS (TTM)
$1.83
Dividend yield
—
52W range
$76 – $270
Volume
7.1M
Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd (CRDO) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed CRDO price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$250.81
Today
Analyst consensus
$207.71
-17.18% · 12M
2030 Base
$386.98
+54.29% future
NPV today
$190.64
@ 17% WACC
19 analysts:
15 Buy3 Hold0 Sell
Management guidance
CEO William Brennan has not issued specific long-term revenue targets through 2030 in public filings. Most recent guidance (Q3 FY26) projects FY2027 revenue of $2.12B (56.4% growth from FY2026 est. $1.36B). Company is pursuing aggressive M&A (DustPhotonics acquisition, Hyperlume integration) to expand optical portfolio, signaling confidence in sustained 30%+ growth trajectory through 2028.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
CRDO · Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$183.45
NPV today: $90.37
Base case (2030)
$386.98
NPV today: $190.64
Bull case (2030)
$794.05
NPV today: $391.17
WallStSmart.com
CRDO financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.3B | $2.1B | $3.2B | $4.4B | $5.4B |
| Revenue growth | 205.7% | 55.9% | 50.0% | 38.1% | 22.8% |
| Net margin | — | 43.2% | 45.6% | 47.2% | 48.0% |
| EPS | $3.42 | $4.96 | $7.84 | $11.20 | $13.97 |
| Diluted shares | — | 185M | 185M | 185M | 185M |
| Net debt | — | $156.98M | $1.03B | $2.24B | $3.72B |
| P/S multiple | — | 14.0x | 14.0x | 14.0x | 14.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $159.74 | $235.06 | $319.78 | $386.98 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $5.4B | $5.4B | $5.4B |
| P/S multiple | 7.0x | 14.0x | 28.0x |
| Diluted shares | 185M | 185M | 185M |
| Net debt | $3.72B | $3.72B | $3.72B |
| Implied P/E † | 13x | 28x | 57x |
| 2030 Price | $183.45 | $386.98 | $794.05 |
| NPV @ 17% | $90.37 | $190.64 | $391.17 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because CRDO is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $386.98 base case
CRDO catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ DustPhotonics optical integration driving FY2027 revenue acceleration to $2B+; optical represents higher-margin, faster-growth TAM than AEC
+ Hyperscaler AI capex cycle (Amazon, Microsoft, Meta committing $200B+ annually through 2028); Credo supplies critical AI data center connectivity for both copper (ZeroFlap AEC) and optical (newly expanded portfolio)
+ Patent settlements with TE Connectivity and Molex (Mar 2026) remove litigation overhang; enables aggressive customer expansion with AWS, Azure, Google
+ Cardinal 1.6T and Robin 800G optical DSP launches (Mar 2026) position Credo to capture growing optical interconnect TAM; targeting massive-scale AI fabrics
+ Q4 FY2026 & FY2027 earnings (expected early June 2026) will validate hyperscaler adoption momentum and optical ramp credibility
Key risks
- Customer concentration: 3-4 hyperscalers represent majority of revenue; any slowdown in their AI capex plans directly impacts growth (Amazon/Microsoft policy changes, capex pullback)
- High valuation (P/E ~103x, P/S ~31.6x): stock is pricing in aggressive growth; any miss on FY2027 optical ramp or hyperscaler demand slowdown triggers 30-50% revaluation
- Competitive intensification from Broadcom (AVGO) and Marvell (MRVL): both have $15B+ R&D budgets, established customer relationships, and optical portfolios; Credo is 1/50th their size by revenue
- Optical integration execution risk: DustPhotonics acquisition must deliver on promised product/margin synergies; integration delays could push optical revenue inflection to FY2028
- Insider selling: CTO and other executives have sold $50M+ in shares since Mar 2026; suggests potential concern about near-term valuation/growth saturation
Methodology · Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd 2030 stock forecast model
Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 19 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (1% cumulative for CRDO by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($3.72B by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 17% WACC (sector fallback) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 7.0x / base 14.0x / bull 28.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 20, 2026.
CRDO price target FAQ
What is the CRDO price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd 2030 base case is $386.98 per share, with a bull case of $794.05 and bear case of $183.45. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 17% WACC is $190.64.
How is the Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The CRDO 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the CRDO price target account for dilution?
Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd is projected to grow diluted share count from 184M to 185M by 2030 (a 1% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 1%.
What is the analyst consensus on CRDO stock?
19 analysts cover CRDO with an average 12-month price target of $207.71. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.