COST
Costco Wholesale Corp
NASDAQ: COST · CONSUMER DEFENSIVE · DISCOUNT STORES
$982.35
+0.68% today
Updated 2026-06-12
Market cap
$423.23B
P/E ratio
48.07
P/S ratio
1.44x
EPS (TTM)
$19.85
Dividend yield
0.57%
52W range
$842 – $1,097
Volume
2.1M
Costco Wholesale Corp (COST) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed COST price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$982.35
Today
Analyst consensus
$1,075.00
+9.43% · 12M
2030 Base
$1,057.29
+7.63% future
NPV today
$695.82
@ 10% WACC
40 analysts:
22 Buy11 Hold2 Sell
Management guidance
Costco management has not provided explicit long-term revenue targets through 2030. However, the company maintains consistent guidance for mid-to-high single-digit comparable sales growth (currently 11.6% in April 2026) and disciplined warehouse expansion (targeting ~65 new units annually). Management emphasizes membership fee growth as a high-margin revenue driver, with current renewal rates exceeding 90% and executive membership penetration rising. The 13% dividend increase (May 2026) signals confidence in sustained cash generation.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
COST · Costco Wholesale Corp · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$561.28
NPV today: $369.39
Base case (2030)
$1,057.29
NPV today: $695.82
Bull case (2030)
$2,049.31
NPV today: $1,348.68
WallStSmart.com
COST financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $275.2B | $315.4B | $348.2B | $381.8B | $413.5B | $443.2B |
| Revenue growth | 8.2% | 11.0% | 10.4% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 7.2% |
| Net margin | — | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.2% |
| EPS | $4.50 | $21.80 | $24.10 | $26.80 | $29.20 | $31.50 |
| Diluted shares | — | 445M | 445M | 446M | 446M | 447M |
| Net debt | — | $-12.41B | $-16.09B | $-20.12B | $-24.48B | $-29.16B |
| P/S multiple | — | 1.0x | 1.0x | 1.0x | 1.0x | 1.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $737.42 | $817.83 | $901.41 | $981.32 | $1,057.29 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $443.2B | $443.2B | $443.2B |
| P/S multiple | 0.5x | 1.0x | 2.0x |
| Diluted shares | 447M | 447M | 447M |
| Net debt | $-29.16B | $-29.16B | $-29.16B |
| Implied P/E † | 18x | 34x | 65x |
| 2030 Price | $561.28 | $1,057.29 | $2,049.31 |
| NPV @ 10% | $369.39 | $695.82 | $1,348.68 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because COST is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $1,057.29 base case
COST catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ Warehouse expansion: ~65 new locations annually through 2030 (currently at all-time expansion pace); new Guilderland, FL, and other regional openings drive member acquisition and comparable sales lift
+ Membership fee optimization: Executive membership penetration rising; pricing power demonstrated by 13% dividend increase; potential fee raises in 2026-2027 timeframe contribute 2-3% to revenue growth
+ E-commerce and digital integration: Omnichannel sales grew 18.8% YoY in Q2 FY2026; Mixsoon K-Beauty and ancillary product categories (beauty, wellness, tech) expand margin profile and attach rates
+ Gasoline margin recovery: Current macro uncertainty has compressed gas margins; margin normalization post-2026 could add 1-2% to operating leverage
+ International expansion: Japan, South Korea, UK, Australia markets show strong comp growth; Costco's penetration in non-US markets remains lower than domestic, supporting long-term expansion
Key risks
- Valuation compression risk: Stock trades at P/E 53.8x vs. sector average ~20x; any growth deceleration or margin pressure triggers multiple contraction
- Membership saturation in mature US markets: North American household penetration approaching 40-50%; growth dependent on geographic expansion and international markets
- Consumer spending weakness: Recent data (inflation, tariffs, margin pressure) could dampen traffic and comp sales growth below 5% in 2027-2028, reversing current momentum
- Operating leverage constraints: 3.0% net profit margin limits earnings growth if comp sales decelerate; membership fee income is only high-margin offset, but represents ~12-15% of total revenue
- Competitive pressure: Walmart's omnichannel expansion, Amazon fresh/grocery, and discount retail competition (BJ's, Sam's Club) could limit Costco's pricing power and market share gains
- Tariff and supply chain headwinds: Trump tariffs (ongoing) could raise import costs; Costco's value positioning requires cost control, limiting pass-through ability
Methodology · Costco Wholesale Corp 2030 stock forecast model
Costco Wholesale Corp 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 40 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (1% cumulative for COST by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($-29.16B by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 10% WACC (CAPM: beta 0.908) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 0.5x / base 1.0x / bull 2.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 20, 2026.
COST price target FAQ
What is the COST price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's Costco Wholesale Corp 2030 base case is $1,057.29 per share, with a bull case of $2,049.31 and bear case of $561.28. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 10% WACC is $695.82.
How is the Costco Wholesale Corp 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The COST 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the COST price target account for dilution?
Costco Wholesale Corp is projected to grow diluted share count from 444M to 447M by 2030 (a 1% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 1%.
What is the analyst consensus on COST stock?
40 analysts cover COST with an average 12-month price target of $1,075.00. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.