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COP

ConocoPhillips

NYSE: COP · ENERGY · OIL & GAS E&P

$128.25
+3.16% today

Updated 2026-04-29

Market cap
$148.41B
P/E ratio
19.14
P/S ratio
2.46x
EPS (TTM)
$6.36
Dividend yield
2.56%
52W range
$82 – $136
Volume
10.0M
OverviewPrice TargetsFinancialsValuationInsidersEarnings

ConocoPhillips (COP) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030

Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.

Price target summary

Current
$128.25
Consensus
$121.18
-5.51%
2030 Target
$717.86
+459.73%
DCF
$74.50
-49.28% MoS
22 analysts:
12 Buy6 Hold3 Sell

Management guidance

No specific CEO revenue targets found in available data. Most recent guidance focuses on project execution (Willow, LNG expansions) and cash return strategy rather than explicit revenue projections through 2030. CEO Ryan Lance recently sold $79.5M in stock, signaling potential caution on near-term outlook.

Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence

Revenue & price projection

Actual revenue Projected revenue Base case Bull to bear range
Bull case (2030)
$1,187.73
$71.5B Rev × 20x P/S
Base case (2030)
$717.86
$71.5B Rev × 12x P/S
Bear case (2030)
$469.87
$71.5B Rev × 8x P/S

Financial forecast — research-backed

Metric2023202420252026 (E)2027 (E)2028 (E)2029 (E)2030 (E)
Revenue$56.1B$54.6B$58.7B$61.0B$63.5B$66.8B$69.2B$71.5B
Revenue growth—-2.6%7.5%1.2%4.1%5.2%3.6%3.3%
EPS$8.78$7.75$6.14$4.93$6.20$7.15$7.65$8.10
P/S ratio———12.0x12.0x12.0x12.0x12.0x
Implied price———$613.44$639.55$665.65$691.76$717.86

Catalysts & risks

Growth catalysts
+ Marathon Oil acquisition ($22.5B all-stock deal) closing and asset integration through 2026-2027
+ Willow project production ramp-up in Alaska (material volume growth 2026-2028)
+ LNG expansion projects and international asset development execution
+ Oil price sensitivity: current elevated prices ($100+ crude) significantly boost near-term cash generation
+ Q1 2026 earnings report (April 30, 2026) will provide updated 2026-2028 guidance post-Marathon
Key risks
- Crude oil price volatility: 27% of revenue decline 2023-2024 driven by commodity price compression; $10/barrel swing = ~$500M+ revenue impact
- Geopolitical/Middle East exposure: Iran tensions and potential supply disruptions create unpredictable commodity swings
- Integration execution risk: Marathon acquisition adds $20B+ in assets requiring successful operational integration
- CEO insider selling signal: $79.5M in recent share sales may indicate management skepticism on valuation/outlook
- Analyst rating downgrades: Recent downgrades from Roth Capital, JP Morgan, BofA Securities in Jan-Mar 2026 show consensus deterioration

Methodology

ConocoPhillips's forward estimates are derived from AI-powered research synthesis combining analyst consensus from 22 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts from industry research. Revenue and EPS projections use analyst consensus where available and conservative extrapolation with growth deceleration for outer years. Price targets are calculated using a tiered Price-to-Sales (P/S) methodology, where the P/S multiple is determined by the projected revenue growth rate.

WallStSmart proprietary research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: April 6, 2026.