COHR
Coherent Inc
NYSE: COHR · TECHNOLOGY · SCIENTIFIC & TECHNICAL INSTRUMENTS
$385.03
+5.90% today
Updated 2026-06-12
Market cap
$83.52B
P/E ratio
204.25
P/S ratio
12.65x
EPS (TTM)
$2.09
Dividend yield
—
52W range
$77 – $440
Volume
6.1M
Coherent Inc (COHR) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed COHR price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$385.03
Today
Analyst consensus
$380.00
-1.31% · 12M
2030 Base
$426.04
+10.65% future
NPV today
$216.65
@ 16% WACC
23 analysts:
16 Buy6 Hold0 Sell
Management guidance
Management has not disclosed explicit 2030 revenue targets in public filings. However, CEO guidance points to 'multi-year, multi-billion-dollar collaboration' with NVIDIA and commitment to 'rapidly expand manufacturing capacity' to meet AI datacenter demand through at least 2028. The company projects 'accelerated growth in fiscal 2027' driven by AI infrastructure scaling and has indicated backlogs extending into 2028, implying confidence in sustained high growth through at minimum 2028.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
COHR · Coherent Inc · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$252.61
NPV today: $128.46
Base case (2030)
$426.04
NPV today: $216.65
Bull case (2030)
$946.33
NPV today: $481.22
WallStSmart.com
COHR financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $5.8B | $7.1B | $9.2B | $11.7B | $14.2B | $17.1B |
| Revenue growth | 23.4% | 21.9% | 30.1% | 26.9% | 21.8% | 20.2% |
| Net margin | — | 15.2% | 17.6% | 18.9% | 19.3% | 19.7% |
| EPS | $2.45 | $5.48 | $8.25 | $11.20 | $13.95 | $17.10 |
| Diluted shares | — | 196M | 196M | 197M | 197M | 197M |
| Net debt | — | $3.13B | $2.84B | $2.47B | $2.02B | $1.49B |
| P/S multiple | — | 5.0x | 5.0x | 5.0x | 5.0x | 5.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $164.63 | $220.00 | $284.38 | $351.03 | $426.04 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $17.1B | $17.1B | $17.1B |
| P/S multiple | 3.0x | 5.0x | 11.0x |
| Diluted shares | 197M | 197M | 197M |
| Net debt | $1.49B | $1.49B | $1.49B |
| Implied P/E † | 15x | 25x | 55x |
| 2030 Price | $252.61 | $426.04 | $946.33 |
| NPV @ 16% | $128.46 | $216.65 | $481.22 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because COHR is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $426.04 base case
COHR catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ NVIDIA $2B strategic investment and multi-year, multi-billion-dollar orders securing 75% of 2027 indium phosphide wafer capacity
+ Datacenter & Communications segment now 75% of revenue with record Q3 backlog extending into 2028; AI infrastructure capex from hyperscalers (Meta $60B+, Microsoft $80B+) driving optical interconnect demand
+ Capacity expansion in 6-inch indium phosphide wafers and manufacturing scale-up to meet 2027-2028 demand; margin expansion potential as volumes scale
+ S&P 500 inclusion (recent) driving passive inflows and institutional adoption; photonics leadership position in AI networking supply chain
Key risks
- Concentration risk: 75% revenue from Datacenter segment, primary customers appear to be hyperscalers (NVIDIA, Meta, Microsoft, Google); slowdown in hyperscaler capex would severely impact growth
- Valuation risk: Trading at 191x P/E (TTM) and 10.6x P/S; stock has appreciated 375% YoY, creating significant downside if growth disappoints or rates rise
- Execution risk: Massive capex and manufacturing expansion required; geopolitical tensions (China export controls) could disrupt indium phosphide supply chain
- Margin pressure: Despite recent gross margin expansion to 37.66% in Q3, sustained growth at scale typically requires operating leverage that may not materialize if R&D and manufacturing costs escalate
Methodology · Coherent Inc 2030 stock forecast model
Coherent Inc 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 23 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (1% cumulative for COHR by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($1.49B by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 16% WACC (CAPM: beta 2.053) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 3.0x / base 5.0x / bull 11.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 20, 2026.
COHR price target FAQ
What is the COHR price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's Coherent Inc 2030 base case is $426.04 per share, with a bull case of $946.33 and bear case of $252.61. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 16% WACC is $216.65.
How is the Coherent Inc 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The COHR 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the COHR price target account for dilution?
Coherent Inc is projected to grow diluted share count from 196M to 197M by 2030 (a 1% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 1%.
What is the analyst consensus on COHR stock?
23 analysts cover COHR with an average 12-month price target of $380.00. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.