COCO
Vita Coco Company Inc
NASDAQ: COCO · CONSUMER DEFENSIVE · BEVERAGES - NON-ALCOHOLIC
$72.46
+0.15% today
Updated 2026-06-05
Market cap
$4.62B
P/E ratio
58.62
P/S ratio
7.02x
EPS (TTM)
$1.38
Dividend yield
—
52W range
$32 – $82
Volume
1.3M
Vita Coco Company Inc (COCO) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed COCO price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$72.46
Today
Analyst consensus
$70.43
-2.80% · 12M
2030 Base
$102.33
+41.22% future
NPV today
$70.55
@ 8% WACC
13 analysts:
8 Buy2 Hold0 Sell
Management guidance
Vita Coco raised FY2026 revenue guidance to 18-21% growth (from prior guidance) in April 2026, following strong Q1 2026 results with 37% revenue growth. Management cited accelerating coconut water demand and improved Walmart shelf placement as key drivers. CEO has positioned the company for sustained high-single to low-double digit growth driven by category expansion and international penetration.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
COCO · Vita Coco Company Inc · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$53.45
NPV today: $36.85
Base case (2030)
$102.33
NPV today: $70.55
Bull case (2030)
$175.66
NPV today: $121.11
WallStSmart.com
COCO financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $0.6B | $0.8B | $0.9B | $1.1B | $1.2B | $1.4B |
| Revenue growth | 18.2% | 23.0% | 20.0% | 18.3% | 15.5% | 14.6% |
| Net margin | — | 13.5% | 14.3% | 14.6% | 14.7% | 14.7% |
| EPS | $1.23 | $1.77 | $2.25 | $2.70 | $3.15 | $3.60 |
| Diluted shares | — | 57M | 57M | 57M | 58M | 58M |
| Net debt | — | $-36.87M | $-81.12M | $-133.48M | $-193.95M | $-263.27M |
| P/S multiple | — | 4.0x | 4.0x | 4.0x | 4.0x | 4.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $53.07 | $64.20 | $76.47 | $88.83 | $102.33 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.4B | $1.4B | $1.4B |
| P/S multiple | 2.0x | 4.0x | 7.0x |
| Diluted shares | 58M | 58M | 58M |
| Net debt | $-263.27M | $-263.27M | $-263.27M |
| Implied P/E † | 15x | 28x | 49x |
| 2030 Price | $53.45 | $102.33 | $175.66 |
| NPV @ 8% | $36.85 | $70.55 | $121.11 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because COCO is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $102.33 base case
COCO catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ Continued Walmart shelf-space gains and distribution wins at major retailers
+ Category expansion (Vita Coco Treats, electrolyte beverages, plant-based innovation)
+ International market penetration in Europe, Asia-Pacific, and Latin America
+ INTENNSE professional tennis league partnership and lifestyle brand licensing expansion
+ Margin recovery as tariff pressures normalize post-2026
Key risks
- Heavy reliance on coconut water category and Walmart relationship (material concentration risk)
- Commodity cost volatility (coconut inputs, logistics, tariffs)
- Consumer beverage category saturation and health-conscious consumer preference shifts
- Competition from larger beverage majors (Coca-Cola, PepsiCo) entering plant-based category
- Valuation risk: P/E of 51.9x assumes sustained growth execution; miss would compress multiples sharply
Methodology · Vita Coco Company Inc 2030 stock forecast model
Vita Coco Company Inc 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 13 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (1% cumulative for COCO by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($-263.27M by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 8% WACC (CAPM: beta 0.714) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 2.0x / base 4.0x / bull 7.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 20, 2026.
COCO price target FAQ
What is the COCO price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's Vita Coco Company Inc 2030 base case is $102.33 per share, with a bull case of $175.66 and bear case of $53.45. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 8% WACC is $70.55.
How is the Vita Coco Company Inc 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The COCO 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the COCO price target account for dilution?
Vita Coco Company Inc is projected to grow diluted share count from 57M to 58M by 2030 (a 1% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 1%.
What is the analyst consensus on COCO stock?
13 analysts cover COCO with an average 12-month price target of $70.43. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.