CGAU
Centerra Gold Inc
NYSE: CGAU · BASIC MATERIALS · GOLD
$18.73
-9.59% today
Updated 2026-06-05
Market cap
$3.51B
P/E ratio
5.70
P/S ratio
2.24x
EPS (TTM)
$3.10
Dividend yield
1.21%
52W range
$7 – $21
Volume
1.5M
Centerra Gold Inc (CGAU) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed CGAU price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$18.73
Today
Analyst consensus
$16.67
-11.00% · 12M
2030 Base
$27.51
+46.88% future
NPV today
$15.85
@ 13% WACC
9 analysts:
6 Buy3 Hold1 Sell
Management guidance
Centerra Gold has not provided explicit multi-year revenue targets through 2030 in public guidance. However, 2026 production guidance and the company's 'self-funded growth strategy' indicate management expects continued volume growth from the Kemess project and existing operations. The 2025 year-end reserves increased 58% for gold and 49% for copper, signaling multi-year production capacity expansion.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
CGAU · Centerra Gold Inc · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$27.51
NPV today: $15.85
Base case (2030)
$27.51
NPV today: $15.85
Bull case (2030)
$48.88
NPV today: $28.17
WallStSmart.com
CGAU financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.3B | $1.9B | $2.5B | $3.2B | $3.8B | $4.3B |
| Revenue growth | 9.5% | 37.0% | 32.8% | 26.7% | 18.9% | 13.5% |
| Net margin | — | 24.8% | 26.1% | 27.7% | 27.8% | 27.8% |
| EPS | $2.23 | $2.35 | $3.28 | $4.41 | $5.24 | $5.95 |
| Diluted shares | — | 199M | 200M | 200M | 200M | 201M |
| Net debt | — | $-149.01M | $-346.90M | $-597.62M | $-895.64M | $-1.23B |
| P/S multiple | — | 1.0x | 1.0x | 1.0x | 1.0x | 1.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $10.24 | $14.31 | $18.89 | $23.33 | $27.51 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.3B | $4.3B | $4.3B |
| P/S multiple | 1.0x | 1.0x | 2.0x |
| Diluted shares | 201M | 201M | 201M |
| Net debt | $-1.23B | $-1.23B | $-1.23B |
| Implied P/E † | 5x | 5x | 8x |
| 2030 Price | $27.51 | $27.51 | $48.88 |
| NPV @ 13% | $15.85 | $15.85 | $28.17 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because CGAU is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $27.51 base case
CGAU catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ Kemess project ramp-up and production contribution (2027-2028 major inflection point)
+ Gold and copper price strength (commodity tailwind; gold >$2000/oz supports 40%+ margin expansion)
+ Reserve replacement and resource conversion at Mt. Milligan and Kemess (58% gold reserve increase in 2025 indicates 8-10 year mine life extension)
+ Self-funded growth capital deployment (lower capex dependency vs. peers; FCF conversion 30-40% of revenue supports reinvestment)
Key risks
- Gold/copper commodity price collapse (50% of revenue sensitivity; $1500/oz gold -20% to -30% revenue impact)
- Kemess permitting or regulatory delays (BC project subject to government approvals; 1-2 year delay possible)
- Operating cost inflation (fuel, labor, energy costs; mining COGS typically 40-50% of revenue)
- Geopolitical/tax risk (Kyrgyzstan operations exposure; Mt. Milligan in BC subject to First Nations relations)
- Analyst consensus underestimation (3 of 9 hold ratings suggest conservative mood despite 150% 1Y stock rally; potential negative revision risk if sentiment shifts)
Methodology · Centerra Gold Inc 2030 stock forecast model
Centerra Gold Inc 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 9 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (1% cumulative for CGAU by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($-1.23B by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 13% WACC (CAPM: beta 1.484) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 1.0x / base 1.0x / bull 2.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 21, 2026.
CGAU price target FAQ
What is the CGAU price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's Centerra Gold Inc 2030 base case is $27.51 per share, with a bull case of $48.88 and bear case of $27.51. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 13% WACC is $15.85.
How is the Centerra Gold Inc 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The CGAU 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the CGAU price target account for dilution?
Centerra Gold Inc is projected to grow diluted share count from 199M to 201M by 2030 (a 1% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 1%.
What is the analyst consensus on CGAU stock?
9 analysts cover CGAU with an average 12-month price target of $16.67. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.