CENX
Century Aluminum Company
NASDAQ: CENX · BASIC MATERIALS · ALUMINUM
$60.18
-9.50% today
Updated 2026-06-05
Market cap
$6.06B
P/E ratio
18.21
P/S ratio
2.38x
EPS (TTM)
$3.36
Dividend yield
—
52W range
$17 – $70
Volume
1.8M
Century Aluminum Company (CENX) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed CENX price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$60.18
Today
Analyst consensus
$80.00
+32.93% · 12M
2030 Base
$63.95
+6.26% future
NPV today
$33.58
@ 15% WACC
5 analysts:
4 Buy0 Hold0 Sell
Management guidance
Century Aluminum CEO Jesse Gary has stated the company is advancing a $4B+ smelter project in Oklahoma (750,000 metric tons/year capacity) with target final investment decision and groundbreaking by year-end 2026. Management projects Q2 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $315-335M and has communicated confidence in sustained high aluminum pricing driven by global supply disruptions (Middle East conflicts, Iceland restart). The company is expanding Mt. Holly (South Carolina) and Grundartangi (Iceland) facilities to capture incremental volumes, targeting material production increases through 2028-2029 as projects come online.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
CENX · Century Aluminum Company · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$63.95
NPV today: $33.58
Base case (2030)
$63.95
NPV today: $33.58
Bull case (2030)
$133.04
NPV today: $69.85
WallStSmart.com
CENX financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.5B | $3.6B | $4.4B | $5.2B | $6.0B | $6.9B |
| Revenue growth | 13.9% | 44.3% | 20.0% | 17.9% | 17.0% | 14.5% |
| Net margin | — | 28.6% | 30.0% | 30.5% | 30.6% | 30.5% |
| EPS | $2.47 | $10.50 | $13.20 | $15.80 | $18.50 | $21.10 |
| Diluted shares | — | 99M | 100M | 100M | 100M | 100M |
| Net debt | — | $71.73M | $157.80M | $259.30M | $378.09M | $514.07M |
| P/S multiple | — | 1.0x | 1.0x | 1.0x | 1.0x | 1.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $36.05 | $42.40 | $49.17 | $56.69 | $63.95 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $6.9B | $6.9B | $6.9B |
| P/S multiple | 1.0x | 1.0x | 2.0x |
| Diluted shares | 100M | 100M | 100M |
| Net debt | $514.07M | $514.07M | $514.07M |
| Implied P/E † | 3x | 3x | 6x |
| 2030 Price | $63.95 | $63.95 | $133.04 |
| NPV @ 15% | $33.58 | $33.58 | $69.85 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because CENX is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $63.95 base case
CENX catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ Oklahoma smelter FID and groundbreaking (target: Q4 2026) — adds 750k MT/year capacity by ~2029
+ Mt. Holly expansion completion (underway in 2026) — production ramp from 200k to 300k MT/year
+ Grundartangi restart and potline expansion (Q2 2026 restart, ongoing expansion) — incremental Iceland capacity online
+ Sustained LME aluminum pricing support from Middle East supply disruption and Section 232 tariff enforcement
+ Green aluminum premium realization — strategic positioning for EV/aerospace demand
+ Hawesville sale proceeds and improved liquidity enabling capex acceleration for strategic projects
Key risks
- Aluminum price mean reversion if global supply deficits resolve faster than expected or demand slows (cyclical commodity exposure)
- Execution risk on Oklahoma smelter capex, permitting delays, or power supply constraints (FID-to-production typically 3-4 years)
- Tariff policy reversal or reduction in Section 232 aluminum tariff support (political risk under future administrations)
- High debt/leverage limits financial flexibility if expansion capex exceeds guidance or project ROI disappoints
- Margin compression risk if feedstock costs (alumina, power) rise faster than realized pricing
- Competitive capacity additions from domestic rivals (Alcoa, Kaiser) or lower-cost international producers if tariff protection weakens
Methodology · Century Aluminum Company 2030 stock forecast model
Century Aluminum Company 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 5 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (1% cumulative for CENX by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($514.07M by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 15% WACC (CAPM: beta 1.916) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 1.0x / base 1.0x / bull 2.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 21, 2026.
CENX price target FAQ
What is the CENX price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's Century Aluminum Company 2030 base case is $63.95 per share, with a bull case of $133.04 and bear case of $63.95. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 15% WACC is $33.58.
How is the Century Aluminum Company 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The CENX 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the CENX price target account for dilution?
Century Aluminum Company is projected to grow diluted share count from 99M to 100M by 2030 (a 1% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 1%.
What is the analyst consensus on CENX stock?
5 analysts cover CENX with an average 12-month price target of $80.00. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.