CAVA
CAVA Group, Inc.
NYSE: CAVA · CONSUMER CYCLICAL · RESTAURANTS
$90.99
+3.10% today
Updated 2026-06-12
Market cap
$8.44B
P/E ratio
139.31
P/S ratio
7.15x
EPS (TTM)
$0.52
Dividend yield
—
52W range
$43 – $99
Volume
3.0M
CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed CAVA price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$90.99
Today
Analyst consensus
$91.85
+0.95% · 12M
2030 Base
$105.98
+16.47% future
NPV today
$55.64
@ 15% WACC
28 analysts:
16 Buy11 Hold1 Sell
Management guidance
CAVA management raised FY2026 guidance following strong Q1 results (32.2% YoY revenue growth to $438.3M). Company plans to open 75-77 new restaurants in 2026 and has demonstrated 9.7% same-restaurant sales growth in Q1 2026. Management targets continued unit expansion with restaurant-level profit margins of 25.1%, signaling confidence in sustained growth momentum through 2026 and beyond.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
CAVA · CAVA Group, Inc. · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$50.08
NPV today: $26.29
Base case (2030)
$105.98
NPV today: $55.64
Bull case (2030)
$189.83
NPV today: $99.67
WallStSmart.com
CAVA financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.2B | $1.6B | $2.0B | $2.4B | $2.8B | $3.3B |
| Revenue growth | 22.4% | 33.5% | 24.1% | 22.0% | 18.4% | 15.7% |
| Net margin | — | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.4% |
| EPS | $0.54 | $0.62 | $0.88 | $1.15 | $1.45 | $1.80 |
| Diluted shares | — | 117M | 117M | 117M | 117M | 117M |
| Net debt | — | $137.70M | $239.52M | $363.75M | $510.90M | $681.22M |
| P/S multiple | — | 4.0x | 4.0x | 4.0x | 4.0x | 4.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $52.88 | $64.99 | $78.59 | $92.31 | $105.98 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $3.3B | $3.3B | $3.3B |
| P/S multiple | 2.0x | 4.0x | 7.0x |
| Diluted shares | 117M | 117M | 117M |
| Net debt | $681.22M | $681.22M | $681.22M |
| Implied P/E † | 28x | 59x | 106x |
| 2030 Price | $50.08 | $105.98 | $189.83 |
| NPV @ 15% | $26.29 | $55.64 | $99.67 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because CAVA is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $105.98 base case
CAVA catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ Unit expansion acceleration: 75-77 new restaurants opening in 2026, with clear Midwest penetration strategy (Ohio, Columbus, St. Louis entries)
+ Same-restaurant sales momentum: 9.7% comp growth in Q1 2026 driven by 6.8% traffic growth, demonstrating resilience against macro headwinds and GLP-1 competition
+ Brand awareness and category leadership: Mediterranean fast-casual positioning with high unit economics (25.1% restaurant-level margins) in growing category with <5% national penetration
+ Margin expansion runway: Adjusted EBITDA growth of 37.6% in Q1 2026 shows operating leverage as scale increases; terminal margins can reach 12-14% at maturity
Key risks
- Consumer spending deceleration: Restaurant sector historically sensitive to discretionary spending pullback; high valuation (133.9x P/E) leaves limited margin for miss
- GLP-1 medication adoption: Weight-loss drugs may suppress volume growth for fast-casual chains; Q1 2026 results suggest so far contained, but trend could accelerate
- Unit productivity degradation: Rapid expansion (75-77 units in 2026) could cannibalize existing locations or dilute unit economics if market saturation occurs faster than expected
- Valuation multiple compression: At 133.9x P/E, stock vulnerable to multiple contraction even if revenue growth remains strong; forward P/E of 108.85 still elevated vs. restaurant peers
Methodology · CAVA Group, Inc. 2030 stock forecast model
CAVA Group, Inc. 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 28 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (0% cumulative for CAVA by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($681.22M by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 15% WACC (CAPM: beta 1.908) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 2.0x / base 4.0x / bull 7.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 20, 2026.
CAVA price target FAQ
What is the CAVA price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's CAVA Group, Inc. 2030 base case is $105.98 per share, with a bull case of $189.83 and bear case of $50.08. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 15% WACC is $55.64.
How is the CAVA Group, Inc. 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The CAVA 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the CAVA price target account for dilution?
CAVA Group, Inc. is projected to grow diluted share count from 116M to 117M by 2030 (a 0% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 0%.
What is the analyst consensus on CAVA stock?
28 analysts cover CAVA with an average 12-month price target of $91.85. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.