CATY
Cathay General Bancorp
NASDAQ: CATY · FINANCIAL SERVICES · BANKS - REGIONAL
$57.04
+0.07% today
Updated 2026-06-05
Market cap
$4.09B
P/E ratio
12.57
P/S ratio
5.31x
EPS (TTM)
$4.85
Dividend yield
2.40%
52W range
$41 – $61
Volume
0.4M
Cathay General Bancorp (CATY) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed CATY price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$57.04
Today
Analyst consensus
$52.00
-8.84% · 12M
2030 Base
$45.15
-20.85% future
NPV today
$30.09
@ 9% WACC
6 analysts:
2 Buy3 Hold2 Sell
Management guidance
No specific revenue targets disclosed by management for 2026-2030. Latest guidance (Q1 2026) emphasizes improving net interest margin and loan growth momentum. Management authorized new $150M share buyback program, signaling confidence in capital returns but not providing forward revenue projections.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
CATY · Cathay General Bancorp · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$29.13
NPV today: $19.41
Base case (2030)
$45.15
NPV today: $30.09
Bull case (2030)
$93.23
NPV today: $62.14
WallStSmart.com
CATY financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.4B | $0.9B | $1.0B | $1.0B | $1.1B | $1.1B |
| Revenue growth | -0.4% | 20.6% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 3.1% |
| Net margin | — | 40.1% | 40.8% | 40.8% | 40.8% | 40.7% |
| EPS | $4.54 | $5.49 | $5.90 | $6.15 | $6.35 | $6.52 |
| Diluted shares | — | 67M | 67M | 67M | 68M | 68M |
| Net debt | — | $-161.65M | $-332.62M | $-511.14M | $-695.81M | $-886.28M |
| P/S multiple | — | 2.0x | 2.0x | 2.0x | 2.0x | 2.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $29.80 | $33.86 | $37.71 | $41.40 | $45.15 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.1B | $1.1B | $1.1B |
| P/S multiple | 1.0x | 2.0x | 5.0x |
| Diluted shares | 68M | 68M | 68M |
| Net debt | $-886.28M | $-886.28M | $-886.28M |
| Implied P/E † | 5x | 7x | 14x |
| 2030 Price | $29.13 | $45.15 | $93.23 |
| NPV @ 9% | $19.41 | $30.09 | $62.14 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because CATY is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $45.15 base case
CATY catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ Interest rate environment stabilization improving NIM expansion
+ Loan portfolio growth acceleration in commercial and CRE segments
+ Completion of $150M share repurchase program reducing share count
+ Deposit cost normalization as competitive deposit pricing moderates
+ Geographic footprint expansion through 60+ domestic and international branches
Key risks
- Significant commercial real estate (CRE) concentration creates credit cycle vulnerability
- Geographic concentration in California/Asian markets limits diversification
- Rising credit losses if economic recession materializes despite strong Q1 2026
- Net interest margin compression if Fed maintains elevated rate environment
- Regional bank regulatory pressures and higher capital requirements post-SVB crisis
- Analyst consensus 'Hold' rating reflects uncertainty about sustainable growth trajectory
Methodology · Cathay General Bancorp 2030 stock forecast model
Cathay General Bancorp 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 6 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (1% cumulative for CATY by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($-886.28M by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 9% WACC (CAPM: beta 0.86) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 1.0x / base 2.0x / bull 5.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 21, 2026.
CATY price target FAQ
What is the CATY price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's Cathay General Bancorp 2030 base case is $45.15 per share, with a bull case of $93.23 and bear case of $29.13. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 9% WACC is $30.09.
How is the Cathay General Bancorp 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The CATY 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the CATY price target account for dilution?
Cathay General Bancorp is projected to grow diluted share count from 67M to 68M by 2030 (a 1% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 1%.
What is the analyst consensus on CATY stock?
6 analysts cover CATY with an average 12-month price target of $52.00. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.