WallStSmart
CASY

Caseys General Stores Inc

NASDAQ: CASY · CONSUMER CYCLICAL · SPECIALTY RETAIL

$781.50
-0.40% today

Updated 2026-04-29

Market cap
$28.97B
P/E ratio
44.86
P/S ratio
1.71x
EPS (TTM)
$17.42
Dividend yield
0.28%
52W range
$429 – $806
Volume
0.6M
OverviewPrice TargetsFinancialsValuationInsidersEarnings

Caseys General Stores Inc (CASY) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030

Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.

Price target summary

Current
$781.50
Consensus
$671.50
-14.08%
2030 Target
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DCF
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12 analysts:
6 Buy5 Hold0 Sell

Management guidance

Casey's upgraded FY2026 guidance following strong Q3 results with diluted EPS up 50% and EBITDA rising 27.5%. Management is executing on CEFCO acquisition strategy targeting ~3,000 locations by incorporating ~200 CEFCO stores across Southern states, with focus on converting acquired stores to higher-margin inside sales. Company reaffirmed full-year guidance for inside sales growth and margin expansion, indicating confidence in mid-single-digit revenue growth trajectory through store expansion and comparable store sales.

Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence

Revenue & price projection

Actual revenue Projected revenue Base case Bull to bear range
Bull case (2030)
$11,448.67
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Base case (2030)
$6,839.46
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Bear case (2030)
$4,534.86
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Financial forecast — research-backed

Metric2023202420252026 (E)2027 (E)2028 (E)2029 (E)
Revenue$15.1B$14.9B$15.9B$17.4B$18.6B$19.9B$21.2B
Revenue growth—-1.5%7.3%9.4%6.8%6.7%6.4%
EPS—$13.43$11.30$17.78$19.77$21.45$23.28
P/S ratio———12.0x12.0x12.0x12.0x
Implied price———$5,649.99$6,021.70$6,467.75$6,839.46

Catalysts & risks

Growth catalysts
+ CEFCO store acquisition and integration (200+ locations across Southern states including Florida Panhandle expansion)
+ Inside sales growth acceleration driven by food/beverage innovation (chicken wings, energy drinks) and loyalty program expansion
+ S&P 500 inclusion effective April 9, 2026 driving passive index inflows
+ Margin expansion from higher-margin inside sales conversion and nicotine alternative products (pouches, vapor) gaining traction
+ Digital strategy and DoorDash partnership expansion driving incremental revenue channels
Key risks
- CEFCO integration execution risk and ability to convert acquired stores to Casey's higher-margin format without disruption
- Fuel margin compression from volatile commodity prices and competition from larger retailers (Walmart, Murphy USA)
- Labor cost inflation impacting convenience store sector margins despite pricing power
- High valuation at 42.7x P/E with elevated short interest (37.3% jump in March) suggesting crowded positioning and downside volatility
- Slowing comparable store sales growth and modest 5.2% revenue growth forecast for FY2027 indicating potential deceleration

Methodology

Caseys General Stores Inc's forward estimates are derived from AI-powered research synthesis combining analyst consensus from 12 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts from industry research. Revenue and EPS projections use analyst consensus where available and conservative extrapolation with growth deceleration for outer years. Price targets are calculated using a tiered Price-to-Sales (P/S) methodology, where the P/S multiple is determined by the projected revenue growth rate.

WallStSmart proprietary research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: April 7, 2026.