CARR
Carrier Global Corp
NYSE: CARR · INDUSTRIALS · BUILDING PRODUCTS & EQUIPMENT
$69.91
+0.24% today
Updated 2026-06-12
Market cap
$55.17B
P/E ratio
44.28
P/S ratio
2.52x
EPS (TTM)
$1.50
Dividend yield
1.43%
52W range
$50 – $80
Volume
6.8M
Carrier Global Corp (CARR) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed CARR price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$69.91
Today
Analyst consensus
$73.78
+5.54% · 12M
2030 Base
$32.13
-54.04% future
NPV today
$18.98
@ 12% WACC
29 analysts:
12 Buy10 Hold0 Sell
Management guidance
Carrier provided 2026 full-year guidance of approximately $22.67B revenue (4.24% growth vs 2025's $21.75B), with EPS expected to reach $2.86 (65.72% growth). Management highlighted data center cooling as a major growth driver with Q1 2026 North American data center orders surging 400% YoY, positioning the company to capitalize on AI infrastructure buildout through 2028+. CEO emphasized confidence in mid-single-digit organic growth baseline with upside from data center and aftermarket services.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
CARR · Carrier Global Corp · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$32.13
NPV today: $18.98
Base case (2030)
$32.13
NPV today: $18.98
Bull case (2030)
$71.43
NPV today: $42.19
WallStSmart.com
CARR financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $21.7B | $22.7B | $24.5B | $27.1B | $30.1B | $32.8B |
| Revenue growth | -3.3% | 4.2% | 8.1% | 10.6% | 10.9% | 9.1% |
| Net margin | — | 10.5% | 11.7% | 12.9% | 13.7% | 14.1% |
| EPS | $2.40 | $2.86 | $3.45 | $4.20 | $4.95 | $5.55 |
| Diluted shares | — | 831M | 832M | 833M | 834M | 835M |
| Net debt | — | $10.26B | $9.35B | $8.33B | $7.21B | $5.98B |
| P/S multiple | — | 1.0x | 1.0x | 1.0x | 1.0x | 1.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $14.92 | $18.21 | $22.53 | $27.39 | $32.13 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $32.8B | $32.8B | $32.8B |
| P/S multiple | 1.0x | 1.0x | 2.0x |
| Diluted shares | 835M | 835M | 835M |
| Net debt | $5.98B | $5.98B | $5.98B |
| Implied P/E † | 6x | 6x | 13x |
| 2030 Price | $32.13 | $32.13 | $71.43 |
| NPV @ 12% | $18.98 | $18.98 | $42.19 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because CARR is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $32.13 base case
CARR catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ Data center cooling demand acceleration driven by hyperscaler AI capex (Meta $60B+, Microsoft $80B+ through 2027-2028)
+ Toshiba HVAC acquisition integration and margin expansion from higher-margin commercial/industrial segments
+ Global Comfort Solutions spin-off unlocking value and allowing pure-play focus on building climate and refrigeration solutions
+ Aftermarket and services revenue growth (higher margin, recurring) reaching 40%+ of total revenue by 2028
+ Energy efficiency regulations and decarbonization tailwinds supporting HVAC replacement cycles and heat pump adoption
Key risks
- Residential HVAC market weakness persists (2025 saw -3.29% revenue decline due to housing slowdown and macro uncertainty)
- Class action price-fixing lawsuit vs. Carrier and 6 competitors filed May 2026 (potential settlements and reputational risk)
- Data center cooling demand concentration risk — if hyperscaler capex moderates post-2028, growth stalls significantly
- China market deterioration continues (Carrier has meaningful exposure; geopolitical/tariff risks escalating)
- Competitive intensity from Trane, Johnson Controls, and emerging players in liquid cooling (ZutaCore partnership is defensive)
- Integration execution risk on Toshiba and Viessmann acquisitions; margin accretion slower than expected
Methodology · Carrier Global Corp 2030 stock forecast model
Carrier Global Corp 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 29 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (1% cumulative for CARR by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($5.98B by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 12% WACC (CAPM: beta 1.377) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 1.0x / base 1.0x / bull 2.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 21, 2026.
CARR price target FAQ
What is the CARR price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's Carrier Global Corp 2030 base case is $32.13 per share, with a bull case of $71.43 and bear case of $32.13. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 12% WACC is $18.98.
How is the Carrier Global Corp 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The CARR 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the CARR price target account for dilution?
Carrier Global Corp is projected to grow diluted share count from 831M to 835M by 2030 (a 1% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 1%.
What is the analyst consensus on CARR stock?
29 analysts cover CARR with an average 12-month price target of $73.78. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.