WallStSmart
CARR

Carrier Global Corp

NYSE: CARR · INDUSTRIALS · BUILDING PRODUCTS & EQUIPMENT

$61.74
-0.42% today

Updated 2026-04-29

Market cap
$50.94B
P/E ratio
36.08
P/S ratio
2.34x
EPS (TTM)
$1.69
Dividend yield
1.49%
52W range
$50 – $80
Volume
6.6M
OverviewPrice TargetsFinancialsValuationInsidersEarnings

Carrier Global Corp (CARR) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030

Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.

Price target summary

Current
$61.74
Consensus
$71.00
+15.00%
2030 Target
$434.54
+603.82%
DCF
$58.82
-14.04% MoS
27 analysts:
7 Buy5 Hold0 Sell

Management guidance

Carrier management provided 2026 outlook of $22.42B revenue (3.1% growth) in February 2026 earnings call. CEO David Gitlin emphasized strategic pivot toward higher-growth segments including commercial HVAC, data centers, and heat pump platforms to offset residential weakness. No specific guidance provided for 2027-2030.

Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence

Revenue & price projection

Actual revenue Projected revenue Base case Bull to bear range
Bull case (2030)
$724.23
$30.2B Rev × 20x P/S
Base case (2030)
$434.54
$30.2B Rev × 12x P/S
Bear case (2030)
$289.69
$30.2B Rev × 8x P/S

Financial forecast — research-backed

Metric2023202420252026 (E)2027 (E)2028 (E)2029 (E)2030 (E)
Revenue$22.1B$22.5B$21.7B$22.4B$23.6B$25.1B$27.3B$30.2B
Revenue growth—1.8%-3.3%3.1%5.3%6.5%8.7%10.6%
EPS$2.73$2.47$2.40$2.85$3.24$3.75$4.42$5.25
P/S ratio———12.0x12.0x12.0x12.0x12.0x
Implied price———$323.12$339.83$362.12$389.97$434.54

Catalysts & risks

Growth catalysts
+ Data center cooling demand surge - Q4 2025 orders up 400%, significant TAM expansion driven by AI/GPU infrastructure buildout
+ Heat pump adoption acceleration - European expansion via Heat Geek investment, regulatory tailwinds toward electrification
+ Aftermarket services growth - recurring revenue model provides counter-cyclical stability and higher margins on aging installed base
+ Residential HVAC recovery - current trough conditions present 2027+ upside if housing stabilizes
+ Commercial HVAC backlog conversion - strong order book in commercial segment provides near-term revenue visibility
Key risks
- Residential HVAC demand remains depressed - housing slowdown extends beyond 2026, impacting ~40% of revenue base
- Data center cooling competition intensifying - Vertiv, Trane gaining share; Nvidia cooling efficiency comments created near-term headwinds
- Macro/interest rate sensitivity - construction spending and HVAC replacements tied to economic cycles and financing availability
- Supply chain/margin pressure - inflation in components and labor could compress operating margins below 10% target
- Execution risk on strategic pivot - successful transition to higher-margin commercial/data center segments requires operational excellence

Methodology

Carrier Global Corp's forward estimates are derived from AI-powered research synthesis combining analyst consensus from 27 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts from industry research. Revenue and EPS projections use analyst consensus where available and conservative extrapolation with growth deceleration for outer years. Price targets are calculated using a tiered Price-to-Sales (P/S) methodology, where the P/S multiple is determined by the projected revenue growth rate.

WallStSmart proprietary research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: April 7, 2026.