Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc
NYSE: BXMT · REAL ESTATE · REIT - MORTGAGE
Updated 2026-04-29
Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc (BXMT) Stock Valuation Analysis
Fair value estimate, historical valuation range, and quality signals for BXMT.
Valued
Valuation reasonably reflects current fundamentals. Limited margin of safety at these levels.
BXMT historical valuation range
Where current P/E sits in BXMT's own 5Y range.
BXMT intrinsic value (DCF)
DCF-based fair value estimate vs current market price.
Intrinsic value calculated using discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on projected free cash flows, discount rate, and terminal growth assumptions. A positive margin of safety indicates the current price is below estimated fair value, providing a cushion against estimation error.
BXMT valuation signals
Quick-read green flags, caution flags, and risks based on current metrics.
P/E Ratio — History
Current: 31.80x
P/S Ratio — History
Current: 7.23x
Is BXMT overvalued in 2026?
Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc (BXMT) currently trades at $19.08 per share with a market capitalization of $3,218,491,000.00. Based on our multi-factor framework, the stock trades at a fair valuation with a Smart Value Score of 56/100. This score blends growth quality, financial health, and price attractiveness into a single institutional-grade read.
The stock trades at a P/E ratio of 31.8x, above its 5-year median of 15.1x. The PEG ratio of 254.80 indicates the price has run ahead of the underlying growth rate.
Looking at its own history, BXMT is currently trading more expensive than 100% of the last 5Y on P/E. This places it in the 100th percentile of its historical range, a zone where forward returns have typically been muted.
Our discounted cash flow model estimates BXMT's intrinsic value at $76.43 per share, against the current market price of $19.08. This implies a margin of safety of +73.82%. A meaningful cushion exists against model error, making this a reasonable risk-adjusted entry.
The Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 puts financial quality in a middling range, neither a standout strength nor an obvious red flag.
Bottom line: BXMT trades at a fair valuation on our framework, with a Smart Value Score of 56/100. The valuation is defensible but offers no obvious bargain. Patience or a better entry price may reward disciplined buyers.
Frequently asked questions
Is BXMT overvalued in 2026?
Based on a Smart Value Score of 56/100, BXMT is fairly valued. Price reasonably reflects current fundamentals with limited cushion in either direction.
What is BXMT's fair value?
Our DCF model estimates BXMT's intrinsic value at $76.43 per share, versus the current price of $19.08. This produces a margin of safety of +73.82%.
What P/E ratio does BXMT trade at?
BXMT trades at a P/E of 31.8x on trailing twelve-month earnings, compared to its 5-year median of 15.1x.
Is BXMT a buy based on valuation?
WallStSmart does not issue buy or sell recommendations. Our Smart Value Score of 56/100 reflects the combined read on growth, quality, and price. The profile is balanced. Best suited for investors with an existing thesis.
How does BXMT's valuation compare to its history?
On P/E, BXMT currently sits in the 100th percentile of its own 5Y range. That is historically expensive relative to where it has traded over the period.
What is BXMT's Smart Value Score?
BXMT's Smart Value Score is 56/100. The Smart Value Score is a proprietary WallStSmart metric blending growth quality, financial health, and valuation attractiveness into a single 0-100 read. Scores above 75 are rare and indicate strong multi-factor alignment.