BWXT
BWX Technologies Inc
NYSE: BWXT · INDUSTRIALS · AEROSPACE & DEFENSE
$210.80
-2.52% today
Updated 2026-06-05
Market cap
$17.72B
P/E ratio
51.59
P/S ratio
5.25x
EPS (TTM)
$3.75
Dividend yield
0.52%
52W range
$133 – $242
Volume
1.0M
BWX Technologies Inc (BWXT) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed BWXT price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$210.80
Today
Analyst consensus
$230.00
+9.11% · 12M
2030 Base
$251.19
+19.16% future
NPV today
$170.27
@ 9% WACC
16 analysts:
9 Buy4 Hold1 Sell
Management guidance
BWX Technologies raised FY2026 guidance to >$3.75B revenue (implying ~17% growth vs. 2025's $3.20B). Management emphasized aggressive expansion of commercial nuclear manufacturing capacity through the Precision Components Group acquisition and a new greenfield facility, positioning for 20-30% annual growth through 2028 as U.S. nuclear demand accelerates. CEO Geveden indicated the company is 'early innings' of a multi-year nuclear manufacturing cycle with multi-billion-dollar TAM expansion.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
BWXT · BWX Technologies Inc · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$88.93
NPV today: $60.28
Base case (2030)
$251.19
NPV today: $170.27
Bull case (2030)
$413.45
NPV today: $280.26
WallStSmart.com
BWXT financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $3.2B | $3.9B | $4.7B | $5.7B | $6.6B | $7.5B |
| Revenue growth | 18.3% | 20.3% | 21.6% | 20.8% | 16.5% | 13.5% |
| Net margin | — | 11.2% | 11.3% | 11.6% | 12.0% | 12.1% |
| EPS | $3.90 | $4.69 | $5.75 | $7.15 | $8.55 | $9.80 |
| Diluted shares | — | 92M | 92M | 92M | 92M | 92M |
| Net debt | — | $-97.91M | $-216.94M | $-360.63M | $-527.97M | $-717.95M |
| P/S multiple | — | 3.0x | 3.0x | 3.0x | 3.0x | 3.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $127.01 | $155.31 | $188.38 | $220.35 | $251.19 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $7.5B | $7.5B | $7.5B |
| P/S multiple | 1.0x | 3.0x | 5.0x |
| Diluted shares | 92M | 92M | 92M |
| Net debt | $-717.95M | $-717.95M | $-717.95M |
| Implied P/E † | 9x | 26x | 42x |
| 2030 Price | $88.93 | $251.19 | $413.45 |
| NPV @ 9% | $60.28 | $170.27 | $280.26 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because BWXT is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $251.19 base case
BWXT catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ $1.4B Naval Nuclear Propulsion Program contracts (FY2026-2030 visibility, annual renewal options)
+ Commercial nuclear manufacturing ramp via PCG acquisition + greenfield plant buildout (capacity +50% by 2027-2028)
+ U.S. SMR adoption acceleration + grid decarbonization (IRA/CHIPS tailwinds), estimated $50B+ TAM through 2030
+ Uranium enrichment facility licensing (new revenue stream, government-backed demand)
+ Defense nuclear fuel expansion capacity (competitive moat, long-term contracts)
Key risks
- Regulatory/licensing delays on new manufacturing facilities could push revenue realization into 2028-2029
- Execution risk on integration of PCG acquisition and greenfield ramp (capex-intensive, margin pressure near-term)
- Geopolitical escalation reducing defense spending or shifting nuclear policy priorities
- Commercial nuclear adoption slower than consensus if technology/grid adoption stalls
- High valuation (56x P/E, 44.8x EV/EBITDA) leaves limited margin for error; multiple compression risk if growth disappoints
Methodology · BWX Technologies Inc 2030 stock forecast model
BWX Technologies Inc 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 16 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (1% cumulative for BWXT by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($-717.95M by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 9% WACC (CAPM: beta 0.778) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 1.0x / base 3.0x / bull 5.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 20, 2026.
BWXT price target FAQ
What is the BWXT price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's BWX Technologies Inc 2030 base case is $251.19 per share, with a bull case of $413.45 and bear case of $88.93. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 9% WACC is $170.27.
How is the BWX Technologies Inc 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The BWXT 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the BWXT price target account for dilution?
BWX Technologies Inc is projected to grow diluted share count from 92M to 92M by 2030 (a 1% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 1%.
What is the analyst consensus on BWXT stock?
16 analysts cover BWXT with an average 12-month price target of $230.00. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.