BSM
Black Stone Minerals LP
NYSE: BSM · ENERGY · OIL & GAS E&P
$13.38
+0.07% today
Updated 2026-06-05
Market cap
$2.88B
P/E ratio
10.68
P/S ratio
6.83x
EPS (TTM)
$1.27
Dividend yield
9.02%
52W range
$11 – $15
Volume
0.4M
Black Stone Minerals LP (BSM) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed BSM price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$13.38
Today
Analyst consensus
$14.00
+4.63% · 12M
2030 Base
$11.54
-13.75% future
NPV today
$9.30
@ 5% WACC
4 analysts:
0 Buy3 Hold1 Sell
Management guidance
Management has not provided specific multi-year revenue guidance. CEO/leadership focus is on production growth in Haynesville, Shelby Trough, and Permian basins driven by development agreements with third-party operators. 2026 production guidance reiterated at earnings (early May 2026), with constructive long-term outlook for natural gas demand supporting sustained development activity.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
BSM · Black Stone Minerals LP · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$4.51
NPV today: $3.63
Base case (2030)
$11.54
NPV today: $9.30
Bull case (2030)
$22.07
NPV today: $17.78
WallStSmart.com
BSM financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $0.4B | $0.5B | $0.6B | $0.6B | $0.7B | $0.8B |
| Revenue growth | -3.9% | 12.8% | 13.3% | 11.6% | 9.1% | 7.8% |
| Net margin | — | 40.2% | 43.7% | 44.6% | 45.0% | 45.3% |
| EPS | $1.18 | $0.96 | $1.18 | $1.34 | $1.47 | $1.59 |
| Diluted shares | — | 213M | 214M | 215M | 215M | 216M |
| Net debt | — | $-34.54M | $-73.69M | $-117.38M | $-165.07M | $-216.48M |
| P/S multiple | — | 3.0x | 3.0x | 3.0x | 3.0x | 3.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $7.33 | $8.44 | $9.55 | $10.57 | $11.54 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $0.8B | $0.8B | $0.8B |
| P/S multiple | 1.0x | 3.0x | 6.0x |
| Diluted shares | 216M | 216M | 216M |
| Net debt | $-216.48M | $-216.48M | $-216.48M |
| Implied P/E † | 3x | 7x | 14x |
| 2030 Price | $4.51 | $11.54 | $22.07 |
| NPV @ 5% | $3.63 | $9.30 | $17.78 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because BSM is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $11.54 base case
BSM catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ Haynesville/Shelby Trough development acceleration — multiple third-party operator agreements driving production growth
+ Natural gas demand recovery — constructive long-term outlook cited by management; US LNG export dynamics and industrial gas demand
+ Permian basin production contributions — ongoing development agreements supporting growth trajectory
+ Debt reduction and distribution sustainability — maintained $0.30/unit quarterly distribution with debt at $164M (down from prior periods); strong distributable cash flow ($76.5M in Q1 2026)
Key risks
- Commodity price exposure — revenue highly sensitive to oil and natural gas prices; weak gas prices (current market glut) pressure realized prices
- Third-party operator execution risk — BSM is non-operated; production dependent on operator capex discipline and well execution (recent well control incident noted as temporary 'speed bump')
- Analyst sentiment weakness — consensus rating 'Reduce' with only 1 analyst, 3 Hold, 0 Buy; director insider selling (Longmaid -$149.7K) signals potential near-term pressure despite executive buying
- High payout ratio — dividend/distribution at 105-106% of earnings (unsustainable long-term without earnings growth); limits reinvestment and requires revenue/EPS growth to support distribution safety
- Revenue volatility history — 5-year revenue CAGR unclear, but annual swings extreme (2022: +85%, 2023: -11%, 2024: -27%, 2025: +8%); commodity-driven unpredictability
Methodology · Black Stone Minerals LP 2030 stock forecast model
Black Stone Minerals LP 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 4 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (2% cumulative for BSM by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($-216.48M by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 5% WACC (CAPM: beta 0.051) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 1.0x / base 3.0x / bull 6.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 20, 2026.
BSM price target FAQ
What is the BSM price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's Black Stone Minerals LP 2030 base case is $11.54 per share, with a bull case of $22.07 and bear case of $4.51. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 5% WACC is $9.30.
How is the Black Stone Minerals LP 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The BSM 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the BSM price target account for dilution?
Black Stone Minerals LP is projected to grow diluted share count from 212M to 216M by 2030 (a 2% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 2%.
What is the analyst consensus on BSM stock?
4 analysts cover BSM with an average 12-month price target of $14.00. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.