BRX
Brixmor Property
NYSE: BRX · REAL ESTATE · REIT - RETAIL
$32.58
+1.24% today
Updated 2026-06-12
Market cap
$10.00B
P/E ratio
22.78
P/S ratio
7.20x
EPS (TTM)
$1.43
Dividend yield
3.70%
52W range
$24 – $33
Volume
2.5M
Brixmor Property (BRX) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed BRX price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$32.58
Today
Analyst consensus
$32.45
-0.40% · 12M
2030 Base
$-1.20
-103.68% future
NPV today
$-1.20
@ 10% WACC
12 analysts:
9 Buy2 Hold0 Sell
Management guidance
In Q1 2026 earnings (Apr 28, 2026), management raised FY2026 Nareit FFO guidance to $2.34–$2.37/share and reaffirmed same-property NOI growth of 6.4% YoY. CEO emphasized 'strong leasing demand' and 'signed-but-not-commenced pipeline' with embedded upside. No explicit revenue CAGR or terminal revenue target disclosed, but 2026 full-year revenue guidance implies ~$1.45B (5.4% growth vs. 2025's $1.37B).
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
BRX · Brixmor Property · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$-6.78
NPV today: $-6.78
Base case (2030)
$-1.20
NPV today: $-1.20
Bull case (2030)
$21.13
NPV today: $13.67
WallStSmart.com
BRX financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.4B | $1.4B | $1.5B | $1.6B | $1.7B | $1.7B |
| Revenue growth | 6.7% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.2% |
| Net margin | — | 25.7% | 25.9% | 26.4% | 26.8% | 27.1% |
| EPS | $0.88 | $1.21 | $1.28 | $1.36 | $1.44 | $1.51 |
| Diluted shares | — | 307M | 308M | 309M | 309M | 310M |
| Net debt | — | $5.51B | $5.52B | $5.53B | $5.55B | $5.56B |
| P/S multiple | — | 3.0x | 3.0x | 3.0x | 3.0x | 3.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $-3.76 | $-3.11 | $-2.47 | $-1.83 | $-1.20 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.7B | $1.7B | $1.7B |
| P/S multiple | 2.0x | 3.0x | 7.0x |
| Diluted shares | 310M | 310M | 310M |
| Net debt | $5.56B | $5.56B | $5.56B |
| Implied P/E † | -5x | -1x | 14x |
| 2030 Price | $-6.78 | $-1.20 | $21.13 |
| NPV @ 10% | $-6.78 | $-1.20 | $13.67 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because BRX is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $-1.20 base case
BRX catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ Q1 2026 beat on revenue ($354.8M) and EPS ($0.41) with raised FY2026 guidance signals operational momentum and potential for continued outperformance
+ Large signed-but-not-commenced (SBNC) lease pipeline and below-market lease spreads embedded in portfolio provide multi-year organic growth runway
+ Retail REIT sector tailwinds from consumer resilience, below-market occupancy in grocery-anchored centers, and pricing power on lease renewals support 4–6% annual rental growth
Key risks
- Consumer spending slowdown or recession risk could impair occupancy and rent collection, with uncollectible revenues already flagged as management concern
- Rising interest rates or debt refinancing risk (company has $14.6B enterprise value and 1.87x debt-to-equity) could pressure margins and FFO if cap rates move higher
- Retail structural headwinds (e-commerce cannibalization, tenant bankruptcies) remain sector-wide risk, though grocery-anchored centers are more resilient than traditional malls
Methodology · Brixmor Property 2030 stock forecast model
Brixmor Property 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 12 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (1% cumulative for BRX by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($5.56B by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 10% WACC (CAPM: beta 0.981) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 2.0x / base 3.0x / bull 7.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 20, 2026.
BRX price target FAQ
What is the BRX price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's Brixmor Property 2030 base case is $-1.20 per share, with a bull case of $21.13 and bear case of $-6.78. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 10% WACC is $-1.20.
How is the Brixmor Property 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The BRX 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the BRX price target account for dilution?
Brixmor Property is projected to grow diluted share count from 307M to 310M by 2030 (a 1% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 1%.
What is the analyst consensus on BRX stock?
12 analysts cover BRX with an average 12-month price target of $32.45. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.