BLD
Topbuild Corp
NYSE: BLD · INDUSTRIALS · ENGINEERING & CONSTRUCTION
$424.63
-1.11% today
Updated 2026-06-05
Market cap
$11.57B
P/E ratio
23.09
P/S ratio
2.06x
EPS (TTM)
$17.80
Dividend yield
—
52W range
$293 – $559
Volume
0.8M
Topbuild Corp (BLD) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed BLD price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$424.63
Today
Analyst consensus
$467.00
+9.98% · 12M
2030 Base
$378.55
-10.85% future
NPV today
$201.16
@ 15% WACC
15 analysts:
6 Buy9 Hold0 Sell
Management guidance
TopBuild CEO Robert Buck provided 2026 guidance of $6.13B revenue (13.24% growth from $5.41B in 2025) in latest earnings call. Company emphasized strong M&A pipeline and synergy acceleration post-QXO combination, targeting mid- to high-single-digit organic growth through integration of insulation installation and building products distribution. No explicit 2027-2030 guidance provided; relying on analyst consensus and company historical performance.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
BLD · Topbuild Corp · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$378.55
NPV today: $201.16
Base case (2030)
$378.55
NPV today: $201.16
Bull case (2030)
$691.46
NPV today: $367.43
WallStSmart.com
BLD financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $5.4B | $6.1B | $6.8B | $7.5B | $8.2B | $8.8B |
| Revenue growth | 1.5% | 13.2% | 11.7% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 8.2% |
| Net margin | — | 8.5% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 9.7% |
| EPS | $19.81 | $18.49 | $21.50 | $24.75 | $27.80 | $30.50 |
| Diluted shares | — | 28M | 28M | 28M | 28M | 28M |
| Net debt | — | $1.32B | $630.83M | $-131.14M | $-959.98M | $-1.86B |
| P/S multiple | — | 1.0x | 1.0x | 1.0x | 1.0x | 1.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $170.57 | $220.55 | $271.06 | $323.48 | $378.55 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $8.8B | $8.8B | $8.8B |
| P/S multiple | 1.0x | 1.0x | 2.0x |
| Diluted shares | 28M | 28M | 28M |
| Net debt | $-1.86B | $-1.86B | $-1.86B |
| Implied P/E † | 12x | 12x | 23x |
| 2030 Price | $378.55 | $378.55 | $691.46 |
| NPV @ 15% | $201.16 | $201.16 | $367.43 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because BLD is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $378.55 base case
BLD catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ QXO acquisition completion and integration synergies ($14.3B deal announced April 2026) — expected to unlock revenue and margin uplift via bundled offerings and job-site ownership model
+ M&A pipeline acceleration: TopBuild announced acquisitions of Applied Coatings, Upstate Spray Foam, Johnson Roofing, and Comfort Pro insulation; demonstrates capital deployment and organic tuck-in strategy
+ Commercial/industrial demand offset: Q1 2026 saw 17.2% sales growth despite 10.9% residential decline, showing revenue diversification and resilience in non-housing end markets
Key risks
- Pending QXO acquisition introduces integration execution risk, deal financing contingencies, and regulatory approval uncertainty; TopBuild trading at $412 vs. $535 implied acquisition price suggests deal spread risk
- Profit margin compression: Q1 2026 showed net income decline despite 17.2% revenue growth; adjusted EBITDA margin 16.5% vs. prior 18%+; indicates cost/labor inflation outpacing pricing power
- Residential housing market weakness: Same-branch residential sales down 10.9% in Q1 2026; housing starts/permits remain subdued; heavy dependence on residential cycle (historically 40-50% of revenue) creates earnings volatility
Methodology · Topbuild Corp 2030 stock forecast model
Topbuild Corp 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 15 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (0% cumulative for BLD by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($-1.86B by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 15% WACC (CAPM: beta 1.859) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 1.0x / base 1.0x / bull 2.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 21, 2026.
BLD price target FAQ
What is the BLD price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's Topbuild Corp 2030 base case is $378.55 per share, with a bull case of $691.46 and bear case of $378.55. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 15% WACC is $201.16.
How is the Topbuild Corp 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The BLD 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the BLD price target account for dilution?
Topbuild Corp is projected to grow diluted share count from 28M to 28M by 2030 (a 0% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 0%.
What is the analyst consensus on BLD stock?
15 analysts cover BLD with an average 12-month price target of $467.00. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.