Blue Bird Corp
NASDAQ: BLBD · INDUSTRIALS · FARM & HEAVY CONSTRUCTION MACHINERY
Updated 2026-06-05
Blue Bird Corp (BLBD) Stock Valuation Analysis
Fair value estimate, historical valuation range, and quality signals for BLBD.
Valued
Valuation reasonably reflects current fundamentals. Limited margin of safety at these levels.
BLBD historical valuation range
Where current P/E sits in BLBD's own 5Y range.
BLBD intrinsic value (DCF)
DCF-based fair value estimate vs current market price.
Intrinsic value calculated using discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on projected free cash flows, discount rate, and terminal growth assumptions. A positive margin of safety indicates the current price is below estimated fair value, providing a cushion against estimation error.
BLBD valuation signals
Quick-read green flags, caution flags, and risks based on current metrics.
P/E Ratio — History
Current: 17.03x
P/S Ratio — History
Current: 1.46x
Is BLBD overvalued in 2026?
Blue Bird Corp (BLBD) currently trades at $70.36 per share with a market capitalization of $2,193,109,000.00. Based on our multi-factor framework, the stock trades at a fair valuation with a Smart Value Score of 57/100. This score blends growth quality, financial health, and price attractiveness into a single institutional-grade read.
The stock trades at a P/E ratio of 17.0x, above its 5-year median of 15.8x. The PEG ratio of 1.13 points to a price that reasonably reflects expected earnings growth.
Looking at its own history, BLBD is currently trading more expensive than 76% of the last 5Y on P/E. This places it in the 76th percentile of its historical range, a zone where forward returns have typically been muted.
Our discounted cash flow model estimates BLBD's intrinsic value at $30.54 per share, against the current market price of $70.36. This implies a premium to fair value of -89.16%. The current price sits well above what projected cash flows justify, implying investors are paying for growth that has not yet materialized.
The Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 puts financial quality in a middling range, neither a standout strength nor an obvious red flag.
Bottom line: BLBD trades at a fair valuation on our framework, with a Smart Value Score of 57/100. The valuation is defensible but offers no obvious bargain. Patience or a better entry price may reward disciplined buyers.
Frequently asked questions
Is BLBD overvalued?
BLBD scores 57/100 on our Smart Value Score (Grade C+), a mixed overall profile. On valuation specifically, the DCF puts intrinsic value below the current price, so the stock is expensive on cash flow today. The score reflects growth and quality carrying it, not a cheap entry point.
What is BLBD's fair value?
Our DCF model estimates BLBD's intrinsic value at $30.54 per share, versus the current price of $70.36, a margin of safety of -89.16%. Fair value is the present value of the cash flows we project the business to produce, so a price above it means the market is paying up for growth the model does not yet assume.
What P/E ratio does BLBD trade at?
BLBD trades at a P/E of 17.0x on trailing twelve-month earnings, against a 5-year median of 15.8x. P/E is what you pay per dollar of profit, and sitting above its own median means the stock is pricier than usual relative to its earnings.
Is BLBD a buy based on valuation?
Our Smart Value rating for BLBD is Hold, from a Smart Value Score of 57/100 that blends growth, quality, and valuation. The profile is balanced and best suited to investors who already have a thesis. This is research to inform your decision, not personalized financial advice.
How does BLBD's valuation compare to its history?
On P/E, BLBD sits in the 76th percentile of its own 5Y range, historically expensive relative to where it has traded. A high percentile means today's multiple is near the top of its historical band.
What is BLBD's Smart Value Score?
BLBD's Smart Value Score is 57/100. It is a proprietary WallStSmart metric blending growth quality, financial health, and valuation into a single 0-100 read, and scores above 75 are rare, signaling strong multi-factor alignment.