BANF
BancFirst Corporation
NASDAQ: BANF · FINANCIAL SERVICES · BANKS - REGIONAL
$116.27
+1.86% today
Updated 2026-06-12
Market cap
$3.91B
P/E ratio
15.93
P/S ratio
5.59x
EPS (TTM)
$7.30
Dividend yield
1.69%
52W range
$101 – $137
Volume
0.1M
BancFirst Corporation (BANF) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed BANF price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$116.27
Today
Analyst consensus
$124.00
+6.65% · 12M
2030 Base
$98.20
-15.54% future
NPV today
$69.46
@ 8% WACC
4 analysts:
1 Buy3 Hold0 Sell
Management guidance
No specific revenue targets disclosed by management. CEO David Harlow has emphasized organic growth through relationship banking and selective M&A (American Bank of Oklahoma acquisition closed in 2025). Company maintains consistent dividend growth (28 consecutive years) signaling confidence in earnings trajectory, but has not provided explicit forward revenue guidance beyond quarterly cadence.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
BANF · BancFirst Corporation · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$44.58
NPV today: $31.53
Base case (2030)
$98.20
NPV today: $69.46
Bull case (2030)
$151.82
NPV today: $107.39
WallStSmart.com
BANF financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $0.8B | $0.8B | $0.8B | $0.8B | $0.9B | $0.9B |
| Revenue growth | -9.3% | 10.2% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 3.1% |
| Net margin | — | 33.9% | 32.8% | 32.1% | 31.5% | 31.0% |
| EPS | $7.12 | $7.62 | $7.85 | $8.05 | $8.20 | $8.32 |
| Diluted shares | — | 34M | 34M | 34M | 34M | 34M |
| Net debt | — | $-97.19M | $-215.03M | $-338.72M | $-467.25M | $-599.72M |
| P/S multiple | — | 3.0x | 3.0x | 3.0x | 3.0x | 3.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $70.26 | $78.15 | $85.31 | $91.97 | $98.20 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $0.9B | $0.9B | $0.9B |
| P/S multiple | 1.0x | 3.0x | 5.0x |
| Diluted shares | 34M | 34M | 34M |
| Net debt | $-599.72M | $-599.72M | $-599.72M |
| Implied P/E † | 5x | 12x | 18x |
| 2030 Price | $44.58 | $98.20 | $151.82 |
| NPV @ 8% | $31.53 | $69.46 | $107.39 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because BANF is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $98.20 base case
BANF catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ American Bank of Oklahoma integration driving deposit and loan growth in Oklahoma market
+ Net interest margin expansion from balance sheet repricing and loan mix improvement
+ Potential Fed rate stability or cuts improving lending dynamics and deposit competition normalization
Key risks
- Regional bank sector sensitivity to interest rate cycles and recession risk
- Charge-off uptick observed in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 indicating emerging credit stress
- Insider selling by David Rainbolt (director, ~10% owner) totaling $2.1M+ in April-May 2026 signals insider caution on valuation
Methodology · BancFirst Corporation 2030 stock forecast model
BancFirst Corporation 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 4 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (1% cumulative for BANF by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($-599.72M by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 8% WACC (CAPM: beta 0.609) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 1.0x / base 3.0x / bull 5.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 20, 2026.
BANF price target FAQ
What is the BANF price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's BancFirst Corporation 2030 base case is $98.20 per share, with a bull case of $151.82 and bear case of $44.58. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 8% WACC is $69.46.
How is the BancFirst Corporation 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The BANF 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the BANF price target account for dilution?
BancFirst Corporation is projected to grow diluted share count from 34M to 34M by 2030 (a 1% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 1%.
What is the analyst consensus on BANF stock?
4 analysts cover BANF with an average 12-month price target of $124.00. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.