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BABA

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd

NYSE: BABA · CONSUMER CYCLICAL · INTERNET RETAIL

$130.43
-0.32% today

Updated 2026-04-29

Market cap
$336.63B
P/E ratio
24.02
P/S ratio
0.33x
EPS (TTM)
$5.68
Dividend yield
0.77%
52W range
$104 – $193
Volume
10.6M
OverviewPrice TargetsFinancialsValuationInsidersEarnings

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (BABA) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030

Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.

Price target summary

Current
$130.43
Consensus
$185.15
+41.95%
2030 Target
$2,091.63
+1503.64%
DCF
$562.19
+72.91% MoS
13 analysts:
7 Buy1 Hold1 Sell

Management guidance

No specific CEO revenue targets disclosed in provided materials. However, Alibaba stated a long-term goal of over $100 billion in combined cloud and AI external revenue. Recent guidance emphasizes aggressive AI infrastructure investment with triple-digit AI product revenue growth expected, though near-term profitability is being compressed by quick commerce subsidies and AI capex through fiscal 2028-2029.

Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence

Revenue & price projection

Actual revenue Projected revenue Base case Bull to bear range
Bull case (2030)
$3,341.17
$1725.0B Rev × 4.8x P/S
Base case (2030)
$2,091.63
$1725.0B Rev × 3x P/S
Bear case (2030)
$1,249.54
$1725.0B Rev × 1.8x P/S

Financial forecast — research-backed

Metric2023202420252026 (E)2027 (E)2028 (E)2029 (E)2030 (E)
Revenue$868.7B$941.2B$996.3B$1050.0B$1163.0B$1314.0B$1504.0B$1725.0B
Revenue growth—8.3%5.9%5.4%10.8%13.0%14.5%14.7%
EPS—$62.11$26.20$36.13$54.34$72.50$95.00$125.00
P/S ratio———3.0x3.0x3.0x3.0x3.0x
Implied price———$1,276.71$1,412.53$1,589.09$1,819.99$2,091.63

Catalysts & risks

Growth catalysts
+ AI monetization acceleration: Qwen AI integration into travel, e-commerce, and enterprise cloud services with demonstrated real-world transaction capability
+ Cloud Intelligence Group triple-digit AI revenue growth trajectory establishing new profit engine by 2028-2029
+ Domestic chip competitiveness: Zhenwu and proprietary AI chips reducing dependency on Nvidia, improving margins for cloud services
Key risks
- Chinese regulatory scrutiny: Recent $528M food safety fines signal tightening oversight on marketplace operations and competitive practices
- Margin compression from quick commerce: Aggressive subsidies in food delivery competing with Meituan extending profitability recovery beyond 2029
- AI investment execution risk: Heavy capex on AI infrastructure and models not translating to revenue or margin targets on schedule

Methodology

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd's forward estimates are derived from AI-powered research synthesis combining analyst consensus from 13 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts from industry research. Revenue and EPS projections use analyst consensus where available and conservative extrapolation with growth deceleration for outer years. Price targets are calculated using a tiered Price-to-Sales (P/S) methodology, where the P/S multiple is determined by the projected revenue growth rate.

WallStSmart proprietary research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: April 25, 2026.