AXIA
AXIA Energia
NYSE: AXIA · UTILITIES · UTILITIES - RENEWABLE
$11.99
-1.80% today
Updated 2026-06-05
Market cap
$22.11B
P/E ratio
11.56
P/S ratio
0.51x
EPS (TTM)
$0.85
Dividend yield
5.37%
52W range
$6 – $14
Volume
2.5M
AXIA Energia (AXIA) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed AXIA price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$11.99
Today
Analyst consensus
$11.87
-1.00% · 12M
2030 Base
—
— future
NPV today
—
@ — WACC
1 analysts:
1 Buy0 Hold0 Sell
Management guidance
Management guided to annual investments of BRL 12-14 billion for 2026 and 2027, signaling significant capex-driven growth. CEO indicated the company has concluded its corporate turnaround and is moving toward sustained growth phase. No specific revenue targets provided in available guidance; company focuses on transmission auction wins and grid modernization as growth drivers.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysismedium confidence
AXIA · AXIA Energia · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
—
NPV today: —
Base case (2030)
—
NPV today: —
Bull case (2030)
—
NPV today: —
WallStSmart.com
AXIA financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $41.3B | $43.3B | $46.2B | $49.5B | $53.4B | $57.7B |
| Revenue growth | 2.7% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 8.0% |
| Net margin | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| EPS | $0.31 | $0.52 | $0.68 | $0.82 | $0.95 | $1.10 |
| Diluted shares | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net debt | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| P/S multiple | — | 2.0x | 2.0x | 2.0x | 2.0x | 2.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $231.35 | $246.31 | $264.73 | $285.45 | $307.32 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $57.7B | $57.7B | $57.7B |
| P/S multiple | 1.0x | 2.0x | 4.0x |
| Diluted shares | 0M | 0M | 0M |
| Net debt | — | — | — |
| Implied P/E † | — | — | — |
| 2030 Price | $— | $— | $— |
| NPV @ — | $— | $— | $— |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because AXIA is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $— base case
AXIA catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ BRL 12-14B annual capex investment program (2026-2027) driving transmission network expansion and grid modernization
+ Transmission auction wins and capacity reserve auction participation expanding generation/transmission portfolio
+ Migration to Novo Mercado governance standard expected to improve liquidity and valuation multiple
+ Itumbiara hydropower modernization project with ANDRITZ enhancing operational efficiency and long-term asset value
+ Q4 2025 adjusted net income surge of 141% YoY signaling operational turnaround completion and margin expansion
Key risks
- Brazilian government's 'golden share' veto power creates regulatory/political risk to strategic decisions
- Currency risk: revenues in BRL while trading in USD; BRL volatility impacts reported results
- Dividend taxation law changes and government opposition to preferred share issuance may constrain capital allocation flexibility
- Q4 2025 revenue declined 11.3% QoQ, suggesting seasonality or operational headwinds despite earnings growth
- 5-year revenue CAGR of only 7.1% reflects modest historical growth despite sector tailwinds; execution risk on capex plans
Methodology · AXIA Energia 2030 stock forecast model
AXIA Energia 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 1 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (-100% cumulative for AXIA by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory (— by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using — WACC (sector fallback) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 1.0x / base 2.0x / bull 4.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: April 7, 2026.
AXIA price target FAQ
How is the AXIA Energia 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The AXIA 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
What is the analyst consensus on AXIA stock?
1 analysts cover AXIA with an average 12-month price target of $11.87. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.