AVAV
AeroVironment Inc
NASDAQ: AVAV · INDUSTRIALS · AEROSPACE & DEFENSE
$166.45
-9.04% today
Updated 2026-06-05
Market cap
$8.63B
P/E ratio
—
P/S ratio
5.36x
EPS (TTM)
$-4.35
Dividend yield
—
52W range
$156 – $418
Volume
1.2M
AeroVironment Inc (AVAV) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed AVAV price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$166.45
Today
Analyst consensus
$318.78
+91.52% · 12M
2030 Base
$172.91
+3.88% future
NPV today
$102.55
@ 12% WACC
24 analysts:
20 Buy3 Hold1 Sell
Management guidance
Management has not issued specific forward revenue targets through 2030 in public guidance. However, CEO Wahid Nawabi has emphasized AeroVironment's position as a leader in autonomous systems and counter-UAS markets, with a $1.12B funded backlog as of January 31, 2026, positioning the company for sustained growth. The company is focused on expanding software platforms (AV_Halo) and defense capabilities (LOCUST, Switchblade 400, MAYHEM 10) to capture emerging drone warfare and counter-drone markets.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
AVAV · AeroVironment Inc · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$86.28
NPV today: $51.17
Base case (2030)
$172.91
NPV today: $102.55
Bull case (2030)
$432.78
NPV today: $256.67
WallStSmart.com
AVAV financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $0.8B | $1.9B | $2.5B | $3.1B | $3.7B | $4.4B |
| Revenue growth | 14.5% | 135.2% | 28.5% | 24.8% | 20.2% | 18.5% |
| Net margin | — | 7.7% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 10.0% |
| EPS | $0.76 | $2.94 | $4.24 | $5.82 | $7.15 | $8.64 |
| Diluted shares | — | 51M | 51M | 51M | 51M | 51M |
| Net debt | — | $210.29M | $175.39M | $131.84M | $79.49M | $17.42M |
| P/S multiple | — | 2.0x | 2.0x | 2.0x | 2.0x | 2.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $71.98 | $94.27 | $119.24 | $144.73 | $172.91 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.4B | $4.4B | $4.4B |
| P/S multiple | 1.0x | 2.0x | 5.0x |
| Diluted shares | 51M | 51M | 51M |
| Net debt | $17.42M | $17.42M | $17.42M |
| Implied P/E † | 10x | 20x | 50x |
| 2030 Price | $86.28 | $172.91 | $432.78 |
| NPV @ 12% | $51.17 | $102.55 | $256.67 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because AVAV is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $172.91 base case
AVAV catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ $1.12B funded backlog conversion to revenue in FY2026-2027, providing 12-18 months of revenue visibility
+ DoD budget expansion for drone technologies and counter-UAS systems (recent $43M PANTHER contract, Army LASSO Switchblade 400 prototype award)
+ AV_Halo software platform expansion (INSTINCT autonomy, DETECT RF sensing) enabling software-defined defense recurring revenue streams
+ LOCUST directed energy weapon system FAA validation and domestic operational deployment clearance (May 2026)
+ Potential large-scale procurement programs for loitering munitions (Switchblade 400) and multi-domain autonomous systems
+ International defense partnerships and export opportunities for proven platform technologies
Key risks
- Historical execution challenges and EPS misses (Q3 2026 missed by 45.68%, persistent negative margins despite 116.86% YoY revenue growth)
- Stock trading at elevated multiples (P/S 5.13x, Forward P/E 40.6x, EV/Sales 5.23x) with potential valuation reset if growth decelerates
- Gross margins compressed at 18.88% TTM despite scale, indicating manufacturing/supply chain constraints or pricing pressure
- Geopolitical sensitivity: Ukraine conflict demand may normalize; policy shifts could impact defense spending priorities
- Integration and profitability execution risk: $1.61B revenue with -13.9% profit margin indicates company is still pre-profitability despite 5Y 17.4% CAGR
- Competition from larger defense primes (RTX, LMT, NOC) and emerging drone manufacturers (Anduril, Ondas) in autonomous systems space
Methodology · AeroVironment Inc 2030 stock forecast model
AeroVironment Inc 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 24 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (1% cumulative for AVAV by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($17.42M by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 12% WACC (CAPM: beta 1.355) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 1.0x / base 2.0x / bull 5.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 20, 2026.
AVAV price target FAQ
What is the AVAV price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's AeroVironment Inc 2030 base case is $172.91 per share, with a bull case of $432.78 and bear case of $86.28. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 12% WACC is $102.55.
How is the AeroVironment Inc 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The AVAV 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the AVAV price target account for dilution?
AeroVironment Inc is projected to grow diluted share count from 51M to 51M by 2030 (a 1% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 1%.
What is the analyst consensus on AVAV stock?
24 analysts cover AVAV with an average 12-month price target of $318.78. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.