ATO
Atmos Energy Corporation
NYSE: ATO · UTILITIES · UTILITIES - REGULATED GAS
$182.13
+1.36% today
Updated 2026-06-05
Market cap
$28.37B
P/E ratio
20.93
P/S ratio
5.81x
EPS (TTM)
$8.12
Dividend yield
2.22%
52W range
$147 – $191
Volume
1.2M
Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed ATO price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$182.13
Today
Analyst consensus
$190.27
+4.47% · 12M
2030 Base
$66.61
-63.43% future
NPV today
$46.52
@ 8% WACC
14 analysts:
1 Buy9 Hold1 Sell
Management guidance
Management raised FY2026 EPS guidance to $8.40-$8.50 (prior $8.20-$8.35) following strong Q2 results. CEO highlighted Texas HB 4384 regulatory tailwind and infrastructure investment momentum as key growth drivers. No specific multi-year revenue targets disclosed, but company emphasizes consistent 6-8% EPS growth trajectory supported by regulated rate base expansion and customer growth across eight-state footprint.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
ATO · Atmos Energy Corporation · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$22.82
NPV today: $15.94
Base case (2030)
$66.61
NPV today: $46.52
Bull case (2030)
$197.99
NPV today: $138.26
WallStSmart.com
ATO financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.7B | $5.3B | $5.9B | $6.4B | $6.8B | $7.3B |
| Revenue growth | 12.9% | 13.4% | 10.3% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 6.9% |
| Net margin | — | 26.4% | 25.7% | 25.2% | 24.9% | 24.6% |
| EPS | $2.44 | $8.43 | $9.05 | $9.65 | $10.20 | $10.78 |
| Diluted shares | — | 167M | 167M | 167M | 167M | 167M |
| Net debt | — | $1.82B | $3.82B | $5.99B | $8.32B | $10.81B |
| P/S multiple | — | 3.0x | 3.0x | 3.0x | 3.0x | 3.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $84.91 | $82.79 | $78.76 | $73.08 | $66.61 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $7.3B | $7.3B | $7.3B |
| P/S multiple | 2.0x | 3.0x | 6.0x |
| Diluted shares | 167M | 167M | 167M |
| Net debt | $10.81B | $10.81B | $10.81B |
| Implied P/E † | 2x | 6x | 18x |
| 2030 Price | $22.82 | $66.61 | $197.99 |
| NPV @ 8% | $15.94 | $46.52 | $138.26 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because ATO is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $66.61 base case
ATO catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ Texas HB 4384 regulatory reform enabling higher infrastructure investment returns and accelerated rate recovery
+ Strong customer growth momentum in high-growth Sunbelt states (Texas, Mississippi, Colorado) offsetting electrification headwinds
+ Consistent dividend growth (8.6% 5Y CAGR) and recent hike to $1.00/quarter attracting income-focused institutional capital
+ Infrastructure modernization capex programs ($2B+ annually) driving regulated rate base expansion and predictable earnings accretion
Key risks
- Electrification and decarbonization policies reducing long-term natural gas demand in key markets
- Regulatory risk: unfavorable rate case outcomes or delayed rate recovery could compress margins and EPS growth
- Share dilution: 5.1% increase in shares outstanding YoY masks true earnings power; continued equity issuance could suppress EPS growth
- Operating cash flow decline YoY raises questions about capex funding sustainability and dividend coverage at current levels
- Macro recession risk: economic slowdown reduces customer volumes and infrastructure spending momentum
Methodology · Atmos Energy Corporation 2030 stock forecast model
Atmos Energy Corporation 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 14 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (0% cumulative for ATO by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($10.81B by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 8% WACC (CAPM: beta 0.648) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 2.0x / base 3.0x / bull 6.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 20, 2026.
ATO price target FAQ
What is the ATO price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's Atmos Energy Corporation 2030 base case is $66.61 per share, with a bull case of $197.99 and bear case of $22.82. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 8% WACC is $46.52.
How is the Atmos Energy Corporation 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The ATO 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the ATO price target account for dilution?
Atmos Energy Corporation is projected to grow diluted share count from 167M to 167M by 2030 (a 0% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 0%.
What is the analyst consensus on ATO stock?
14 analysts cover ATO with an average 12-month price target of $190.27. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.