ATI
Allegheny Technologies Incorporated
NYSE: ATI · INDUSTRIALS · METAL FABRICATION
$161.16
-2.00% today
Updated 2026-06-05
Market cap
$23.90B
P/E ratio
57.81
P/S ratio
5.20x
EPS (TTM)
$3.03
Dividend yield
—
52W range
$70 – $177
Volume
1.8M
Allegheny Technologies Incorporated (ATI) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed ATI price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$161.16
Today
Analyst consensus
$164.38
+2.00% · 12M
2030 Base
$132.15
-18.00% future
NPV today
$86.24
@ 10% WACC
10 analysts:
8 Buy1 Hold0 Sell
Management guidance
ATI raised full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to approximately $1.035 billion midpoint (from prior guidance), signaling confidence in sustained aerospace and defense demand. CEO Kimberly Fields highlighted a record $4.1 billion backlog and a renewed 5-year, $1 billion naval nuclear program agreement. Management projects a multi-year upcycle driven by jet engine demand, defense contracts, and specialty energy growth, with 69% of Q1 2026 revenue now from high-margin aerospace and defense markets.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
ATI · Allegheny Technologies Incorporated · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$62.82
NPV today: $41.00
Base case (2030)
$132.15
NPV today: $86.24
Bull case (2030)
$340.17
NPV today: $222.00
WallStSmart.com
ATI financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.6B | $5.2B | $6.2B | $7.3B | $8.4B | $9.5B |
| Revenue growth | 5.2% | 12.2% | 20.0% | 17.9% | 15.5% | 12.9% |
| Net margin | — | 12.2% | 13.2% | 14.1% | 14.6% | 14.7% |
| EPS | $3.24 | $4.60 | $5.95 | $7.50 | $8.95 | $10.20 |
| Diluted shares | — | 137M | 137M | 137M | 137M | 137M |
| Net debt | — | $1.27B | $1.20B | $1.11B | $1.01B | $894.61M |
| P/S multiple | — | 2.0x | 2.0x | 2.0x | 2.0x | 2.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $66.10 | $81.64 | $98.41 | $115.54 | $132.15 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $9.5B | $9.5B | $9.5B |
| P/S multiple | 1.0x | 2.0x | 5.0x |
| Diluted shares | 137M | 137M | 137M |
| Net debt | $894.61M | $894.61M | $894.61M |
| Implied P/E † | 6x | 13x | 33x |
| 2030 Price | $62.82 | $132.15 | $340.17 |
| NPV @ 10% | $41.00 | $86.24 | $222.00 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because ATI is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $132.15 base case
ATI catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ Record $4.1B backlog supports 2-3 year revenue visibility; naval nuclear 5-year $1B contract renewal drives recurring defense revenue
+ Aerospace and defense mix now 69% of revenue and climbing; jet engine demand and platform production rates accelerating through 2027-2028
+ Margin expansion from product mix shift toward high-value aerospace alloys; EBITDA guidance raise signals confidence in 1000+ bps margin improvement trajectory
+ $500M share repurchase program ($655M already executed) reduces share count and supports EPS accretion independent of revenue growth
+ Specialty energy and defense end-markets structurally underpenetrated; ATI positioned as sole-source or preferred supplier for critical applications
Key risks
- Concentration risk: top aerospace OEMs (Boeing, Airbus, GE, RTX) represent majority of revenue; single customer disruption could materially impact near-term guidance
- Commercial airframe production volatility (Boeing 737 MAX supply chain, Airbus capacity constraints) could pressure 2026-2027 revenue growth vs. backlog expectations
- Commodity titanium and nickel pricing cycles; margin compression if raw material costs spike faster than pricing power can offset
- Tariff/trade policy risk on exports to allies and strategic partners; geopolitical escalation could restrict defense end-market access
- Capital intensity: scaling aerospace production requires significant capex; free cash flow conversion risk if capex exceeds management guidance
Methodology · Allegheny Technologies Incorporated 2030 stock forecast model
Allegheny Technologies Incorporated 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 10 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (1% cumulative for ATI by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($894.61M by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 10% WACC (CAPM: beta 0.943) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 1.0x / base 2.0x / bull 5.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 21, 2026.
ATI price target FAQ
What is the ATI price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's Allegheny Technologies Incorporated 2030 base case is $132.15 per share, with a bull case of $340.17 and bear case of $62.82. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 10% WACC is $86.24.
How is the Allegheny Technologies Incorporated 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The ATI 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the ATI price target account for dilution?
Allegheny Technologies Incorporated is projected to grow diluted share count from 136M to 137M by 2030 (a 1% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 1%.
What is the analyst consensus on ATI stock?
10 analysts cover ATI with an average 12-month price target of $164.38. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.