ASTS
Ast Spacemobile Inc
NASDAQ: ASTS · TECHNOLOGY · COMMUNICATION EQUIPMENT
$82.41
-15.53% today
Updated 2026-06-12
Market cap
$31.99B
P/E ratio
—
P/S ratio
376.59x
EPS (TTM)
$-1.80
Dividend yield
—
52W range
$36 – $134
Volume
20.8M
Ast Spacemobile Inc (ASTS) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed ASTS price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$82.41
Today
Analyst consensus
$79.45
-3.59% · 12M
2030 Base
$810.66
+883.69% future
NPV today
$399.35
@ 17% WACC
11 analysts:
2 Buy6 Hold5 Sell
Management guidance
AST SpaceMobile has reaffirmed 2026 revenue guidance of $189.39M (167% growth from $70.92M in 2025), implying full-year 2026 revenue target of approximately $189-200M. Management has publicly committed to global satellite network deployment and commercial activation by 2026, with CEO Abel Avellan emphasizing 'direct-to-device cellular broadband from space' as the core revenue driver. No specific guidance beyond 2026 has been disclosed, but the company is targeting multi-operator partnerships (AT&T, Verizon, T-Mobile joint venture announced May 2026) and expects revenue acceleration through 2027-2028 as constellation reaches full operational capability.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
ASTS · Ast Spacemobile Inc · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$477.53
NPV today: $235.24
Base case (2030)
$810.66
NPV today: $399.35
Bull case (2030)
$1,643.51
NPV today: $809.64
WallStSmart.com
ASTS financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $0.1B | $0.4B | $1.0B | $2.0B | $3.5B | $5.0B |
| Revenue growth | 1505.2% | 166.5% | 359.8% | 147.5% | 88.4% | 55.6% |
| Net margin | — | -78.5% | -9.6% | 2.2% | 7.3% | 12.6% |
| EPS | $-1.32 | $-1.05 | $-0.32 | $0.15 | $0.85 | $2.10 |
| Diluted shares | — | 299M | 299M | 300M | 300M | 300M |
| Net debt | — | $908.71M | $1.41B | $2.41B | $4.16B | $6.66B |
| P/S multiple | — | 50.0x | 50.0x | 50.0x | 50.0x | 50.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $63.86 | $162.36 | $325.76 | $569.71 | $810.66 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $5.0B | $5.0B | $5.0B |
| P/S multiple | 30.0x | 50.0x | 100.0x |
| Diluted shares | 300M | 300M | 300M |
| Net debt | $6.66B | $6.66B | $6.66B |
| Implied P/E † | 227x | 386x | 783x |
| 2030 Price | $477.53 | $810.66 | $1,643.51 |
| NPV @ 17% | $235.24 | $399.35 | $809.64 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because ASTS is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $810.66 base case
ASTS catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ Commercial network activation with tier-1 carriers (AT&T, Verizon, T-Mobile JV) beginning 2026-2027
+ Full constellation deployment (44+ satellites) providing continuous global coverage by Q4 2026/Q1 2027
+ FCC commercial authority granted (April 2026) enabling direct-to-device revenue generation
+ Multi-year service agreements with international operators (Saudi Telecom Company deal announced)
+ Potential government contracts for rural/resilient connectivity (DoD, FEMA use cases)
+ Subscriber ramp from direct-to-device services as smartphones natively support 4G from space
Key risks
- Execution risk: satellite launches delayed (Blue Origin placement error Apr 2026), constellation completion may slip beyond 2026
- Competitive intensity: SpaceX Starlink dominance in satellite broadband, superior scale and brand awareness
- Customer adoption uncertainty: carrier partnerships announced but commercial launch timing and revenue recognition unclear; may take 12-18 months post-network-ready to generate material revenue
- Capex intensity: $1.06B capital expenditure (TTM), net losses expanding (-$487M TTM income), $1B convertible notes issued March 2026; path to profitability unclear
- Regulatory risk: FCC approval granted but international spectrum allocation uncertain, potential for mid-network regulatory changes
- Market share dilution: Saudi Telecom and other regional operators may develop alternative satellite solutions; TAM not guaranteed to ASTS
- High leverage and dilution: debt/equity 1.44x, multiple convertible offerings in progress
- Valuation risk: $37.35B market cap on $84.94M TTM revenue (P/S 439.7x) leaves limited margin for error; stock crashed -12% on Q1 2026 earnings miss despite revenue beat
Methodology · Ast Spacemobile Inc 2030 stock forecast model
Ast Spacemobile Inc 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 11 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (0% cumulative for ASTS by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($6.66B by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 17% WACC (sector fallback) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 30.0x / base 50.0x / bull 100.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 21, 2026.
ASTS price target FAQ
What is the ASTS price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's Ast Spacemobile Inc 2030 base case is $810.66 per share, with a bull case of $1,643.51 and bear case of $477.53. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 17% WACC is $399.35.
How is the Ast Spacemobile Inc 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The ASTS 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the ASTS price target account for dilution?
Ast Spacemobile Inc is projected to grow diluted share count from 299M to 300M by 2030 (a 0% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 0%.
What is the analyst consensus on ASTS stock?
11 analysts cover ASTS with an average 12-month price target of $79.45. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.