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ASML

ASML Holding NV ADR

NASDAQ: ASML · TECHNOLOGY · SEMICONDUCTOR EQUIPMENT & MATERIALS

$1,438.99
+3.22% today

Updated 2026-04-30

Market cap
$561.82B
P/E ratio
48.08
P/S ratio
16.67x
EPS (TTM)
$30.32
Dividend yield
0.60%
52W range
$646 – $1,544
Volume
1.7M
OverviewPrice TargetsFinancialsValuationInsidersEarnings

ASML Holding NV ADR (ASML) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030

Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.

Price target summary

Current
$1,438.99
Consensus
$1,461.00
+1.53%
2030 Target
$1,588.03
+10.36%
DCF
—
—
11 analysts:
7 Buy2 Hold1 Sell

Management guidance

ASML raised FY2026 revenue guidance to EUR 36-40 billion (midpoint EUR 38 billion = $41.8B) in April 2026, up from prior guidance of EUR 32-35 billion. CEO emphasized accelerating EUV demand driven by AI infrastructure capex from memory and logic customers, with strong order intake of EUR 13.2B in Q4 2025. Management indicated Low-NA EUV output expansion for 2027 and confidence in sustained AI-driven semiconductor equipment demand.

Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence

Revenue & price projection

Actual revenue Projected revenue Base case Bull to bear range
Bull case (2030)
$2,454.22
$71.5B Rev × 13.6x P/S
Base case (2030)
$1,588.03
$71.5B Rev × 8.5x P/S
Bear case (2030)
$866.20
$71.5B Rev × 5.1x P/S

Financial forecast — research-backed

Metric2023202420252026 (E)2027 (E)2028 (E)2029 (E)2030 (E)
Revenue$27.6B$28.3B$32.7B$39.0B$48.5B$54.5B$63.2B$71.5B
Revenue growth—2.6%15.6%19.4%24.4%18.5%15.9%13.1%
EPS$19.91$19.24$24.72$31.50$41.20$48.75$56.50$64.25
P/S ratio———6.0x6.0x8.5x8.5x8.5x
Implied price———$575.60$719.50$1,154.93$1,299.29$1,588.03

Catalysts & risks

Growth catalysts
+ AI infrastructure capex supercycle: Meta, Microsoft, Google, Amazon sustained data center buildout driving EUV demand through 2028
+ EUV production capacity ramp: ASML targeting 55+ systems/year by 2027; Low-NA EUV adoption accelerating across memory (SK Hynix, Samsung) and logic (Intel, Samsung) customers
+ High-NA EUV monetization: Despite TSMC delay, Intel and Samsung pursuing High-NA technology; premium pricing ($410M+/system) drives 40%+ gross margins on advanced systems
+ Installed base services: High-margin recurring revenue from maintenance, upgrades, and software growing 25%+ annually as installed base expands
+ Geopolitical tailwinds: U.S. export restrictions on China benefiting ASML competitors in Western markets; Allied supply chain diversification driving capex concentration
Key risks
- TSMC adoption delay of High-NA EUV: Largest customer deferring next-generation $410M systems, potentially reducing revenue acceleration 2027-2028 by $1-2B annually
- Export controls escalation: Further U.S. restrictions on China sales could eliminate 15-20% of addressable market; geopolitical tensions create demand volatility
- Customer capex cycle peak risk: AI spending could normalize post-2027; semiconductor industry historically cyclical with 3-4 year downturn cycles following super-cycle peaks
- Valuation risk: Trading at 48x P/E, 14.2x P/S; stock down 3-6% post-earnings despite guidance raise due to TSMC delay and margin pressure concerns
- Competition and technical risk: Tokyo Electron, Canon attempting EUV alternatives; fab capacity saturation could reduce customer capex intensity by 2028-2029

Methodology

ASML Holding NV ADR's forward estimates are derived from AI-powered research synthesis combining analyst consensus from 11 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts from industry research. Revenue and EPS projections use analyst consensus where available and conservative extrapolation with growth deceleration for outer years. Price targets are calculated using a tiered Price-to-Sales (P/S) methodology, where the P/S multiple is determined by the projected revenue growth rate.

WallStSmart proprietary research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 1, 2026.