ARM
Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares
NASDAQ: ARM · TECHNOLOGY · SEMICONDUCTORS
$380.81
+11.27% today
Updated 2026-06-12
Market cap
$365.53B
P/E ratio
397.94
P/S ratio
74.29x
EPS (TTM)
$0.86
Dividend yield
—
52W range
$100 – $428
Volume
10.8M
Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares (ARM) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed ARM price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$380.81
Today
Analyst consensus
$230.92
-39.36% · 12M
2030 Base
$407.22
+6.94% future
NPV today
$219.02
@ 14% WACC
43 analysts:
20 Buy6 Hold1 Sell
Management guidance
CEO Rene Haas has positioned ARM as the foundational platform for AI with aggressive expansion into data center CPUs via the AGI CPU line. While specific 2030 revenue targets were not disclosed in recent earnings, management emphasized 'high order visibility' for AGI chips and signaled material revenue contribution from silicon products (licensing + royalties) starting 2027. The company projects significant TAM expansion in server CPU market where ARM captured market share gains in Q1 2026 vs. Intel.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
ARM · Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$215.81
NPV today: $116.07
Base case (2030)
$407.22
NPV today: $219.02
Bull case (2030)
$824.83
NPV today: $443.63
WallStSmart.com
ARM financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.9B | $8.2B | $11.2B | $14.8B | $18.7B |
| Revenue growth | 22.8% | 36.0% | 36.6% | 32.1% | 26.4% |
| Net margin | — | 41.0% | 42.5% | 43.8% | 44.8% |
| EPS | $1.46 | $3.15 | $4.45 | $6.05 | $7.80 |
| Diluted shares | — | 1068M | 1070M | 1073M | 1075M |
| Net debt | — | $-1.78B | $-3.22B | $-5.12B | $-7.53B |
| P/S multiple | — | 23.0x | 23.0x | 23.0x | 23.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $178.21 | $243.66 | $322.15 | $407.22 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $18.7B | $18.7B | $18.7B |
| P/S multiple | 12.0x | 23.0x | 47.0x |
| Diluted shares | 1075M | 1075M | 1075M |
| Net debt | $-7.53B | $-7.53B | $-7.53B |
| Implied P/E † | 28x | 52x | 106x |
| 2030 Price | $215.81 | $407.22 | $824.83 |
| NPV @ 14% | $116.07 | $219.02 | $443.63 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because ARM is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $407.22 base case
ARM catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ AGI CPU ramp in hyperscaler data centers (Microsoft, Meta, Google capex $60B-$80B+ annually through 2028)
+ Expansion of royalty revenue stream from AI server chip design wins (currently underpenetrated vs. mobile/consumer)
+ ARM silicon manufacturing (partnership model) generating gross margin accretion and new revenue vertical starting 2027
+ Market share gains in server CPU market vs. Intel; ARM now ~8-12% of addressable server TAM by 2026
+ Potential resolution of FTC antitrust investigation (regulatory tail risk removed = valuation re-rating)
Key risks
- FTC antitrust investigation into CPU licensing practices; potential forced licensing concessions or ARM spin-off of design unit
- Smartphone market weakness (cyclical headwind) offsetting data center upside in near term
- Supply chain constraints for AGI CPU; competitive silicon products from NVIDIA (Grace), Intel (Lunar Lake), AMD (EPYC Bergamo successors) delaying ARM adoption
- Customer concentration risk: hyperscalers (Microsoft, Meta, Google, Amazon) represent >60% of projected data center royalty upside; slowdown in AI capex could crater growth
- Valuation risk: current P/E 250x, P/S 55x; even strong execution may not justify current multiples if growth decelerates below 20% by 2029
Methodology · Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares 2030 stock forecast model
Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 43 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (1% cumulative for ARM by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($-7.53B by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 14% WACC (sector fallback) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 12.0x / base 23.0x / bull 47.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 20, 2026.
ARM price target FAQ
What is the ARM price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares 2030 base case is $407.22 per share, with a bull case of $824.83 and bear case of $215.81. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 14% WACC is $219.02.
How is the Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The ARM 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the ARM price target account for dilution?
Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares is projected to grow diluted share count from 1068M to 1075M by 2030 (a 1% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 1%.
What is the analyst consensus on ARM stock?
43 analysts cover ARM with an average 12-month price target of $230.92. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.