AR
Antero Resources Corp
NYSE: AR · ENERGY · OIL & GAS E&P
$34.83
+1.78% today
Updated 2026-06-12
Market cap
$10.79B
P/E ratio
11.27
P/S ratio
1.92x
EPS (TTM)
$3.09
Dividend yield
—
52W range
$29 – $46
Volume
5.1M
Antero Resources Corp (AR) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed AR price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$34.83
Today
Analyst consensus
$50.15
+43.99% · 12M
2030 Base
$36.27
+4.13% future
NPV today
$27.13
@ 7% WACC
22 analysts:
15 Buy4 Hold0 Sell
Management guidance
Antero Resources guided to 2026 production of 4.1 Bcfe/d with $1B drilling and completion capital budget. Management did not provide explicit multi-year revenue targets through 2030, but indicated strong cash generation from HG acquisition synergies and favorable NGL/LNG market dynamics. Implied trajectory assumes sustained production growth and commodity price realization rather than disclosed revenue guidance.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
AR · Antero Resources Corp · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$36.27
NPV today: $27.13
Base case (2030)
$36.27
NPV today: $27.13
Bull case (2030)
$65.76
NPV today: $49.19
WallStSmart.com
AR financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $5.0B | $7.0B | $7.6B | $8.2B | $8.8B | $9.3B |
| Revenue growth | 21.7% | 35.4% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 6.3% |
| Net margin | — | 19.8% | 21.2% | 21.8% | 22.1% | 22.2% |
| EPS | $1.72 | $4.43 | $5.12 | $5.68 | $6.15 | $6.54 |
| Diluted shares | — | 311M | 313M | 314M | 315M | 317M |
| Net debt | — | $3.72B | $2.41B | $994.07M | $-528.81M | $-2.15B |
| P/S multiple | — | 1.0x | 1.0x | 1.0x | 1.0x | 1.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $10.40 | $16.45 | $22.87 | $29.54 | $36.27 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $9.3B | $9.3B | $9.3B |
| P/S multiple | 1.0x | 1.0x | 2.0x |
| Diluted shares | 317M | 317M | 317M |
| Net debt | $-2.15B | $-2.15B | $-2.15B |
| Implied P/E † | 6x | 6x | 10x |
| 2030 Price | $36.27 | $36.27 | $65.76 |
| NPV @ 7% | $27.13 | $27.13 | $49.19 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because AR is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $36.27 base case
AR catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ HG Marcellus acquisition accretion — corporate cost reductions and production synergies through 2027-2028
+ Global LNG and NGL demand surge from energy security and data center power demand in Appalachia
+ Natural gas infrastructure expansion and export capacity growth improving realized prices
+ Free cash flow deployment for debt reduction and potential share repurchases supporting EPS growth
+ Winter storm operational resilience demonstrated (100% uptime Q1 2026) — proves cost and margin durability
Key risks
- Natural gas price volatility — long-term structural supply/demand uncertainty could pressure revenue in weak commodity cycles
- Regulatory and ESG headwinds — potential methane regulations, carbon policy, or Appalachia basin restrictions could constrain production growth
- LNG export capacity constraints — if U.S. LNG projects delay or don't expand as expected, NGL pricing upside could disappoint
- Insider selling activity — recent insider sales by management signal some caution on near-term valuation despite bullish fundamentals
- Integration execution risk on HG acquisition — synergy realization delays or unforeseen costs could pressure 2027-2028 margins
Methodology · Antero Resources Corp 2030 stock forecast model
Antero Resources Corp 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 22 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (2% cumulative for AR by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($-2.15B by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 7% WACC (CAPM: beta 0.364) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 1.0x / base 1.0x / bull 2.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 21, 2026.
AR price target FAQ
What is the AR price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's Antero Resources Corp 2030 base case is $36.27 per share, with a bull case of $65.76 and bear case of $36.27. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 7% WACC is $27.13.
How is the Antero Resources Corp 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The AR 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the AR price target account for dilution?
Antero Resources Corp is projected to grow diluted share count from 310M to 317M by 2030 (a 2% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 2%.
What is the analyst consensus on AR stock?
22 analysts cover AR with an average 12-month price target of $50.15. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.