APP
Applovin Corp
NASDAQ: APP · COMMUNICATION SERVICES · ADVERTISING AGENCIES
$496.77
+3.80% today
Updated 2026-06-12
Market cap
$203.46B
P/E ratio
52.62
P/S ratio
33.01x
EPS (TTM)
$11.51
Dividend yield
—
52W range
$320 – $746
Volume
4.7M
Applovin Corp (APP) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed APP price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$496.77
Today
Analyst consensus
$644.47
+29.73% · 12M
2030 Base
$1,158.79
+133.26% future
NPV today
$623.25
@ 14% WACC
32 analysts:
18 Buy5 Hold0 Sell
Management guidance
AppLovin has not publicly committed to specific 2026-2030 revenue targets. CEO Adam Foroughi has emphasized AI-driven AXON platform as primary growth engine and e-commerce TAM expansion as multi-year driver. Most recent guidance points to continued acceleration through 2026-2027, with expectations of sustained high growth in mobile gaming and e-commerce verticals.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
APP · Applovin Corp · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$600.04
NPV today: $322.73
Base case (2030)
$1,158.79
NPV today: $623.25
Bull case (2030)
$2,196.48
NPV today: $1,181.36
WallStSmart.com
APP financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $5.5B | $8.5B | $11.2B | $14.8B | $19.2B | $24.6B |
| Revenue growth | 70.0% | 55.2% | 31.8% | 32.1% | 29.7% | 28.1% |
| Net margin | — | 60.5% | 61.4% | 61.5% | 61.6% | 61.6% |
| EPS | $10.43 | $16.80 | $22.40 | $29.60 | $38.40 | $49.20 |
| Diluted shares | — | 306M | 307M | 308M | 308M | 308M |
| Net debt | — | $-438.37M | $-2.41B | $-5.01B | $-8.39B | $-12.72B |
| P/S multiple | — | 14.0x | 14.0x | 14.0x | 14.0x | 14.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $389.88 | $518.67 | $689.97 | $900.34 | $1,158.79 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $24.6B | $24.6B | $24.6B |
| P/S multiple | 7.0x | 14.0x | 27.0x |
| Diluted shares | 308M | 308M | 308M |
| Net debt | $-12.72B | $-12.72B | $-12.72B |
| Implied P/E † | 12x | 24x | 45x |
| 2030 Price | $600.04 | $1,158.79 | $2,196.48 |
| NPV @ 14% | $322.73 | $623.25 | $1,181.36 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because APP is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $1,158.79 base case
APP catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ AXON self-service platform acceleration driving margin expansion and customer acquisition in e-commerce
+ Mobile gaming advertising TAM growth and AppLovin market share gains vs. competitors
+ Hyperscaler capex (Meta, Amazon, Shopify) expansion into mobile and e-commerce ad spend
+ AI-driven attribution and optimization features reducing customer CAC and improving ROAS
+ International expansion in APAC and Europe as mobile monetization matures
Key risks
- Apple iOS privacy changes (App Tracking Transparency) disrupting mobile ad targeting and attribution
- Regulatory scrutiny (SEC investigation, App Store Accountability Acts) constraining platform growth
- Competitive pressure from Google, Meta in-house advertising solutions and programmatic consolidation
- Customer concentration risk in gaming and e-commerce verticals; macroeconomic ad spend pullback
- Insider selling and premium valuation (40.5x P/E) limiting upside if growth decelerates below 25%
Methodology · Applovin Corp 2030 stock forecast model
Applovin Corp 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 32 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (1% cumulative for APP by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($-12.72B by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 14% WACC (sector fallback) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 7.0x / base 14.0x / bull 27.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 20, 2026.
APP price target FAQ
What is the APP price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's Applovin Corp 2030 base case is $1,158.79 per share, with a bull case of $2,196.48 and bear case of $600.04. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 14% WACC is $623.25.
How is the Applovin Corp 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The APP 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the APP price target account for dilution?
Applovin Corp is projected to grow diluted share count from 306M to 308M by 2030 (a 1% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 1%.
What is the analyst consensus on APP stock?
32 analysts cover APP with an average 12-month price target of $644.47. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.