APLD
Applied Digital Corporation
NASDAQ: APLD · TECHNOLOGY · INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY SERVICES
$42.70
+2.97% today
Updated 2026-06-12
Market cap
$12.20B
P/E ratio
—
P/S ratio
38.22x
EPS (TTM)
$-0.38
Dividend yield
—
52W range
$9 – $51
Volume
23.5M
Applied Digital Corporation (APLD) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed APLD price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$42.70
Today
Analyst consensus
$51.33
+20.21% · 12M
2030 Base
$200.87
+370.42% future
NPV today
$98.95
@ 17% WACC
15 analysts:
13 Buy1 Hold1 Sell
Management guidance
Applied Digital has not publicly provided explicit 2026-2030 revenue guidance. However, the company has contracted ~$31B in total lease revenue across four AI Factory campuses (with renewal options reaching $73B). Recent 15-year take-or-pay lease with hyperscaler for Polaris Forge 3 ($7.5B base, $18.2B with renewals) and Delta Forge 1 ($7.5B) represent near-certain revenue streams. Management's capital deployment strategy and multi-gigawatt pipeline signal aggressive expansion to 4+ GW by 2028-2029.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
APLD · Applied Digital Corporation · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$89.67
NPV today: $44.17
Base case (2030)
$200.87
NPV today: $98.95
Bull case (2030)
$409.36
NPV today: $201.66
WallStSmart.com
APLD financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $0.2B | $0.7B | $1.3B | $2.0B | $3.0B | $4.0B |
| Revenue growth | 57.7% | 76.9% | 68.5% | 54.6% | 39.2% | 26.2% |
| Net margin | — | -22.5% | 2.6% | 9.8% | 13.9% | 15.7% |
| EPS | $-0.10 | $-0.55 | $0.12 | $0.68 | $1.45 | $2.18 |
| Diluted shares | — | 286M | 287M | 287M | 287M | 288M |
| Net debt | — | $1.05B | $1.70B | $2.70B | $4.20B | $6.20B |
| P/S multiple | — | 16.0x | 16.0x | 16.0x | 16.0x | 16.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $35.46 | $66.59 | $102.04 | $152.37 | $200.87 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.0B | $4.0B | $4.0B |
| P/S multiple | 8.0x | 16.0x | 31.0x |
| Diluted shares | 288M | 288M | 288M |
| Net debt | $6.20B | $6.20B | $6.20B |
| Implied P/E † | 41x | 92x | 188x |
| 2030 Price | $89.67 | $200.87 | $409.36 |
| NPV @ 17% | $44.17 | $98.95 | $201.66 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because APLD is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $200.87 base case
APLD catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ Execution of $31B contracted lease backlog across four operational AI Factory campuses (Delta Forge 1, Polaris Forge 1-3) driving recurring revenue recognition 2026-2030
+ Polaris Forge 3 operational capacity additions (300 MW) coming online 2027-2028, adding $7.5B+ revenue over contract term
+ Hyperscaler capex cycle: Meta $60B, Microsoft $80B, Google $60B+ through 2028 creates $150B+ TAM for high-performance compute infrastructure that APLD captures
+ Separation of ChronoScale (cloud business, 97% retained stake) enables APLD to focus on higher-margin infrastructure leasing model (42%+ gross margin shown in Q3 2026)
+ Potential additional hyperscaler agreements for remaining gigawatt pipeline capacity (currently 1+ GW contracted, multi-GW in development)
Key risks
- Execution risk: $31B backlog depends on timely construction completion at four campus locations; permitting delays or supply chain constraints could push revenue recognition into later years
- Customer concentration: Appears heavily dependent on one or two large hyperscalers; loss of a major customer or renegotiation of contract terms would materially impact revenue
- Capital intensity: $681M capex in Q3 2026 annualizes to $2.7B+; refinancing risk if debt markets tighten or if APLD cannot secure additional project financing
- Competitive capacity build-out: CoreWeave, Lambda Labs, other emerging HPC providers could capture market share; hyperscalers could build proprietary capacity, reducing outsource demand
- Commodity / utilization risk: If AI capex cycle slows post-2027 or hyperscaler demand softens, contracted capacity could go underutilized, impacting pricing and margin expansion
Methodology · Applied Digital Corporation 2030 stock forecast model
Applied Digital Corporation 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 15 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (1% cumulative for APLD by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($6.20B by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 17% WACC (sector fallback) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 8.0x / base 16.0x / bull 31.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 21, 2026.
APLD price target FAQ
What is the APLD price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's Applied Digital Corporation 2030 base case is $200.87 per share, with a bull case of $409.36 and bear case of $89.67. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 17% WACC is $98.95.
How is the Applied Digital Corporation 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The APLD 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the APLD price target account for dilution?
Applied Digital Corporation is projected to grow diluted share count from 286M to 288M by 2030 (a 1% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 1%.
What is the analyst consensus on APLD stock?
15 analysts cover APLD with an average 12-month price target of $51.33. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.