APG
Api Group Corp
NYSE: APG · INDUSTRIALS · ENGINEERING & CONSTRUCTION
$44.12
-0.99% today
Updated 2026-06-05
Market cap
$18.34B
P/E ratio
—
P/S ratio
2.24x
EPS (TTM)
$-0.64
Dividend yield
—
52W range
$32 – $50
Volume
2.9M
Api Group Corp (APG) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed APG price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$44.12
Today
Analyst consensus
$52.14
+18.18% · 12M
2030 Base
$35.66
-19.17% future
NPV today
$19.73
@ 14% WACC
10 analysts:
7 Buy2 Hold0 Sell
Management guidance
APi Group provided 2026 guidance of $8.72B revenue (10.21% growth vs 2025's $7.91B) and EPS of $1.71. Management has emphasized organic growth plus strategic M&A (Onyx-Fire, Wtech Fire Group acquisitions closed in April 2026) to drive recurring revenue expansion in Safety Services and fire protection. No explicit 2027-2030 targets disclosed, but CEO commentary highlights focus on margin expansion and leveraging $3.1B debt capacity for bolt-on acquisitions in high-margin recurring service verticals.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
APG · Api Group Corp · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$35.66
NPV today: $19.73
Base case (2030)
$35.66
NPV today: $19.73
Bull case (2030)
$70.76
NPV today: $39.15
WallStSmart.com
APG financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $7.9B | $9.1B | $10.4B | $11.9B | $13.6B | $15.3B |
| Revenue growth | 12.7% | 11.5% | 14.8% | 14.3% | 13.8% | 12.5% |
| Net margin | — | 8.3% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 10.0% |
| EPS | $1.26 | $1.75 | $2.14 | $2.58 | $3.02 | $3.51 |
| Diluted shares | — | 434M | 435M | 435M | 435M | 436M |
| Net debt | — | $2.08B | $1.61B | $1.07B | $452.57M | $-240.99M |
| P/S multiple | — | 1.0x | 1.0x | 1.0x | 1.0x | 1.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $16.16 | $20.34 | $25.02 | $30.20 | $35.66 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $15.3B | $15.3B | $15.3B |
| P/S multiple | 1.0x | 1.0x | 2.0x |
| Diluted shares | 436M | 436M | 436M |
| Net debt | $-240.99M | $-240.99M | $-240.99M |
| Implied P/E † | 10x | 10x | 20x |
| 2030 Price | $35.66 | $35.66 | $70.76 |
| NPV @ 14% | $19.73 | $19.73 | $39.15 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because APG is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $35.66 base case
APG catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ Recurring revenue growth acceleration from recent Onyx-Fire and Wtech acquisitions integrating into Safety Services segment
+ Data center construction boom and hyperscaler capex (Meta $60B+, Microsoft $80B+ AI infrastructure through 2028) driving fire/life safety and security demand
+ M&A pipeline: $1B revolver upsized to $1.5B total liquidity, $500M senior notes issued May 2026, enables 4-6 tuck-in acquisitions annually in fragmented fire protection/security market
+ Margin expansion: management guiding to higher adjusted EBITDA margins as acquisition integration completes and operating leverage materializes
Key risks
- Construction cycle slowdown if interest rates remain elevated; APG is rate-sensitive despite recurring revenue mix improving
- M&A execution risk: acquisitions must integrate at target margins; overpayment or integration delays could compress FCF and delever trajectory
- Competitive pressure from larger multi-service players (EMCOR $17.75B, Jacobs $13.17B) expanding into fire/life safety; pricing pressure on legacy contracts
- Insider selling signal (directors sold $217M of stock in Q1 2026) may indicate near-term valuation concerns despite strong fundamentals
Methodology · Api Group Corp 2030 stock forecast model
Api Group Corp 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 10 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (1% cumulative for APG by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($-240.99M by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 14% WACC (CAPM: beta 1.669) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 1.0x / base 1.0x / bull 2.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 21, 2026.
APG price target FAQ
What is the APG price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's Api Group Corp 2030 base case is $35.66 per share, with a bull case of $70.76 and bear case of $35.66. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 14% WACC is $19.73.
How is the Api Group Corp 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The APG 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the APG price target account for dilution?
Api Group Corp is projected to grow diluted share count from 433M to 436M by 2030 (a 1% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 1%.
What is the analyst consensus on APG stock?
10 analysts cover APG with an average 12-month price target of $52.14. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.