ANET
Arista Networks
NYSE: ANET · TECHNOLOGY · COMPUTER HARDWARE
$163.24
+4.37% today
Updated 2026-06-12
Market cap
$220.77B
P/E ratio
60.25
P/S ratio
22.74x
EPS (TTM)
$2.91
Dividend yield
—
52W range
$86 – $180
Volume
9.7M
Arista Networks (ANET) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed ANET price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$163.24
Today
Analyst consensus
$181.84
+11.39% · 12M
2030 Base
$196.73
+20.52% future
NPV today
$108.85
@ 14% WACC
32 analysts:
23 Buy2 Hold0 Sell
Management guidance
CEO Jayshree Ullal has not provided specific multi-year revenue targets through 2030 in recent guidance. Q1 2026 guidance indicated 29.2% revenue growth for FY2026 ($11.64B) and 22.0% growth for FY2027 ($14.19B). Management emphasized sustained 20%+ CAGR driven by AI networking, hyperscaler capex expansion, and campus networking TAM expansion, with strong deferred revenue backlogs supporting visibility into 2027-2028.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
ANET · Arista Networks · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$118.58
NPV today: $65.61
Base case (2030)
$196.73
NPV today: $108.85
Bull case (2030)
$392.12
NPV today: $216.95
WallStSmart.com
ANET financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $9.0B | $11.6B | $14.2B | $17.6B | $21.1B | $24.8B |
| Revenue growth | 28.6% | 29.2% | 22.0% | 24.4% | 19.7% | 17.4% |
| Net margin | — | 39.1% | 39.1% | 40.6% | 41.1% | 41.6% |
| EPS | $2.95 | $3.61 | $4.39 | $5.65 | $6.85 | $8.12 |
| Diluted shares | — | 1262M | 1264M | 1267M | 1268M | 1269M |
| Net debt | — | $-12.80B | $-15.30B | $-18.41B | $-22.13B | $-26.51B |
| P/S multiple | — | 9.0x | 9.0x | 9.0x | 9.0x | 9.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $93.17 | $113.12 | $139.93 | $167.36 | $196.73 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $24.8B | $24.8B | $24.8B |
| P/S multiple | 5.0x | 9.0x | 19.0x |
| Diluted shares | 1269M | 1269M | 1269M |
| Net debt | $-26.51B | $-26.51B | $-26.51B |
| Implied P/E † | 15x | 24x | 48x |
| 2030 Price | $118.58 | $196.73 | $392.12 |
| NPV @ 14% | $65.61 | $108.85 | $216.95 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because ANET is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $196.73 base case
ANET catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ AI hyperscaler capex acceleration (Meta $60B+, Microsoft $80B+, Google/Anthropic commitments) driving merchant Ethernet demand through 2028
+ XPO (high-density liquid-cooled pluggable optics) ramp and CPO (coherent pluggable optics) adoption reducing power/space constraints in AI clusters
+ Campus networking expansion into enterprise (Gartner Magic Quadrant Leader recognition 2026) representing $40B+ TAM with ANET at <5% penetration
+ Deferred revenue (largely AI-driven) conversion into recognized revenue in 2026-2027, providing near-certainty for 25%+ growth
Key risks
- Market share pressure from Cisco, Broadcom if they integrate custom silicon more effectively into hyperscaler solutions
- Hyperscaler capex moderation in 2028-2030 as AI infrastructure matures and ROI pressures emerge; consensus expects $500B-$600B industry spend by 2028, not $1T+
- Valuation compression at 50.5x P/E if growth decelerates below 20% in 2028-2029; limited margin for execution miss
- Customer concentration risk: hyperscalers (Meta, Microsoft, Google, AWS) likely represent 60-70% of revenue; loss of single customer could reduce growth 10-15%
Methodology · Arista Networks 2030 stock forecast model
Arista Networks 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 32 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (1% cumulative for ANET by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($-26.51B by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 14% WACC (CAPM: beta 1.673) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 5.0x / base 9.0x / bull 19.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 20, 2026.
ANET price target FAQ
What is the ANET price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's Arista Networks 2030 base case is $196.73 per share, with a bull case of $392.12 and bear case of $118.58. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 14% WACC is $108.85.
How is the Arista Networks 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The ANET 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the ANET price target account for dilution?
Arista Networks is projected to grow diluted share count from 1259M to 1269M by 2030 (a 1% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 1%.
What is the analyst consensus on ANET stock?
32 analysts cover ANET with an average 12-month price target of $181.84. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.