AMGN
Amgen Inc
NASDAQ: AMGN · HEALTHCARE · DRUG MANUFACTURERS - GENERAL
$355.20
+0.32% today
Updated 2026-06-12
Market cap
$177.16B
P/E ratio
22.83
P/S ratio
4.76x
EPS (TTM)
$14.38
Dividend yield
2.94%
52W range
$260 – $388
Volume
2.6M
Amgen Inc (AMGN) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed AMGN price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$355.20
Today
Analyst consensus
$355.19
-0.00% · 12M
2030 Base
$247.06
-30.44% future
NPV today
$181.64
@ 7% WACC
31 analysts:
15 Buy14 Hold3 Sell
Management guidance
Amgen reaffirmed FY2026 EPS guidance of $21.70-$23.10, implying ~$38.5B-$39.5B revenue (4.8%-2.48% growth per consensus). CEO Robert Bradway has not provided specific multi-year revenue targets through 2030. Guidance reflects modest organic growth offset by patent cliff risks (Prolia/Xgeva) but buoyed by Horizon acquisition integration and pipeline expansion (MariTide obesity, Tepezza subcutaneous formulation, rare disease portfolio).
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
AMGN · Amgen Inc · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$147.78
NPV today: $108.65
Base case (2030)
$247.06
NPV today: $181.64
Bull case (2030)
$544.88
NPV today: $400.60
WallStSmart.com
AMGN financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $36.7B | $39.1B | $41.8B | $45.6B | $49.8B | $54.2B |
| Revenue growth | 9.9% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 8.8% |
| Net margin | — | 32.5% | 33.5% | 34.7% | 35.6% | 36.5% |
| EPS | $18.48 | $23.45 | $25.80 | $29.10 | $32.50 | $36.20 |
| Diluted shares | — | 542M | 543M | 544M | 545M | 546M |
| Net debt | — | $-673.84M | $-6.31B | $-12.46B | $-19.18B | $-26.49B |
| P/S multiple | — | 2.0x | 2.0x | 2.0x | 2.0x | 2.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $145.63 | $165.67 | $190.63 | $217.99 | $247.06 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $54.2B | $54.2B | $54.2B |
| P/S multiple | 1.0x | 2.0x | 5.0x |
| Diluted shares | 546M | 546M | 546M |
| Net debt | $-26.49B | $-26.49B | $-26.49B |
| Implied P/E † | 4x | 7x | 15x |
| 2030 Price | $147.78 | $247.06 | $544.88 |
| NPV @ 7% | $108.65 | $181.64 | $400.60 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because AMGN is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $247.06 base case
AMGN catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ MariTide (GLP-1 obesity drug) Phase 3 data and potential launch 2027-2028 — could add $2B-$5B+ annual revenue if efficacious and gains market share in $200B+ obesity market
+ Horizon Therapeutics integration (Tepezza, TEZSPIRE, rare disease portfolio) expected to contribute $4B-$5B incrementally by 2027-2028 as synergies capture
+ Prolia/Xgeva patent cliff mitigation through biosimilar strategy, pipeline breadth, and price increases in remaining ex-US markets — management expects transition to flatten revenue decline
+ Subcutaneous Tepezza approval (thyroid eye disease) — positive Phase 3 data April 2026 broadens addressable market and improves patient compliance vs. infused version
+ Regulatory approvals for TEZSPIRE, EVENITY, Repatha label expansions in emerging markets and new indications
+ CFO transition (Thomas Dittrich, Sept 2026) and $300M additional Puerto Rico manufacturing investment signal capital allocation discipline and cost control confidence
Key risks
- Tavneos (ChemoCentryx/Amgen subsidiary) safety concerns — 20 deaths reported in Japan post-June 2022 launch; regulatory action (potential withdrawal in Japan, liver injury warnings) could impact rare disease revenue and investor confidence
- Prolia/Xgeva patent cliff acceleration — if biosimilar entry faster than modeled or pricing pressure more severe than 2026 consensus, revenue decline 2027-2029 could exceed projections, forcing lower baseline
- MariTide competitive risk — Eli Lilly (Mounjaro/Zepbound), Novo Nordisk (Ozempic/Wegovy), and emerging GLP-1 players could limit Amgen's obesity market penetration and pricing power vs. bull-case assumptions
- FDA data manipulation allegations (April 2026) — real-time clinical trial monitoring and potential enforcement actions could slow approvals or damage Amgen's regulatory credibility
- Biosimilar erosion of legacy franchise (Enbrel, Neulasta, Sensipar) — ongoing competitive pressure from generics and biologics could reduce high-margin revenue faster than consensus models
- Patent litigation and regulatory headwinds — litigation over KRAS, thyroid eye disease, and immunology patents could delay launches or force licensing concessions
Methodology · Amgen Inc 2030 stock forecast model
Amgen Inc 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 31 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (1% cumulative for AMGN by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($-26.49B by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 7% WACC (CAPM: beta 0.435) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 1.0x / base 2.0x / bull 5.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 21, 2026.
AMGN price target FAQ
What is the AMGN price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's Amgen Inc 2030 base case is $247.06 per share, with a bull case of $544.88 and bear case of $147.78. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 7% WACC is $181.64.
How is the Amgen Inc 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The AMGN 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the AMGN price target account for dilution?
Amgen Inc is projected to grow diluted share count from 540M to 546M by 2030 (a 1% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 1%.
What is the analyst consensus on AMGN stock?
31 analysts cover AMGN with an average 12-month price target of $355.19. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.