AMAT
Applied Materials Inc
NASDAQ: AMAT · TECHNOLOGY · SEMICONDUCTOR EQUIPMENT & MATERIALS
$567.25
+2.64% today
Updated 2026-06-12
Market cap
$389.08B
P/E ratio
46.10
P/S ratio
13.41x
EPS (TTM)
$10.63
Dividend yield
0.42%
52W range
$154 – $508
Volume
6.9M
Applied Materials Inc (AMAT) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed AMAT price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$567.25
Today
Analyst consensus
$509.63
-10.16% · 12M
2030 Base
$643.23
+13.39% future
NPV today
$357.33
@ 14% WACC
40 analysts:
27 Buy8 Hold0 Sell
Management guidance
Applied Materials reported record Q2 2026 revenue of $7.91B (+11.4% YoY) and guided FY2026 revenue to $33.65B (+18.63% vs FY2025 $28.37B). Management highlighted sustained AI infrastructure capex momentum from hyperscalers (Meta, Microsoft, Google, TSMC) with multi-year commitments extending through 2028-2030. CEO Gary Dickerson emphasized EPIC platform partnership ecosystem (Broadcom, universities) driving advanced packaging demand for next-gen AI chips, positioning AMAT for accelerating growth in 2027-2028 as customers scale production.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
AMAT · Applied Materials Inc · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$350.52
NPV today: $194.72
Base case (2030)
$643.23
NPV today: $357.33
Bull case (2030)
$1,131.09
NPV today: $628.35
WallStSmart.com
AMAT financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $28.4B | $33.6B | $44.2B | $55.8B | $67.2B | $77.9B |
| Revenue growth | 4.4% | 18.6% | 31.3% | 26.3% | 20.4% | 15.9% |
| Net margin | — | 28.9% | 30.3% | 30.6% | 30.8% | 30.5% |
| EPS | $9.42 | $12.22 | $16.85 | $21.40 | $25.95 | $29.80 |
| Diluted shares | — | 795M | 796M | 797M | 798M | 798M |
| Net debt | — | $-6.73B | $-13.84B | $-22.81B | $-33.62B | $-46.15B |
| P/S multiple | — | 6.0x | 6.0x | 6.0x | 6.0x | 6.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $262.37 | $350.56 | $448.82 | $547.68 | $643.23 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $77.9B | $77.9B | $77.9B |
| P/S multiple | 3.0x | 6.0x | 11.0x |
| Diluted shares | 798M | 798M | 798M |
| Net debt | $-46.15B | $-46.15B | $-46.15B |
| Implied P/E † | 12x | 22x | 38x |
| 2030 Price | $350.52 | $643.23 | $1,131.09 |
| NPV @ 14% | $194.72 | $357.33 | $628.35 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because AMAT is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $643.23 base case
AMAT catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ Sustained AI infrastructure capex from hyperscalers (Meta $60B+, Microsoft $80B+) through 2028-2030 drives WFE equipment orders
+ EPIC advanced packaging platform scaling with Broadcom partnership and Silicon Valley EPIC Center (operational 2026) unlocking new revenue streams
+ TSMC partnership expansion for next-gen AI chip manufacturing driving incremental deposition, lithography, and metrology equipment demand
+ China geopolitical normalization could open restricted market (currently ~10-15% of addressable TAM), upside catalyst to 2027-2028 guidance
+ Process node transition from N3/N2 to N1/A16 requiring AMAT's leading-edge capabilities across deposition, etch, implant, and metrology
Key risks
- AI capex cycle deceleration if hyperscaler ROI targets unmet; current Mag-7 capex spend (~$250B+ annually) is 2-3x historical norms and unsustainable long-term
- China export restrictions escalation could eliminate $3-5B annual revenue opportunity and trigger inventory write-downs
- Gross margin compression if competitive intensity increases (LRCX, ASML gaining share) or if service/support mix deteriorates
- Memory DRAM/NAND demand weakness (Samsung, SK Hynix capex cuts) could offset logic growth; AMAT has ~45-50% memory exposure
- Valuation risk: current P/E 44.8x implies 30%+ CAGR sustainability through 2030; any miss triggers multiple contraction
Methodology · Applied Materials Inc 2030 stock forecast model
Applied Materials Inc 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 40 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (1% cumulative for AMAT by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($-46.15B by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 14% WACC (CAPM: beta 1.654) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 3.0x / base 6.0x / bull 11.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 20, 2026.
AMAT price target FAQ
What is the AMAT price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's Applied Materials Inc 2030 base case is $643.23 per share, with a bull case of $1,131.09 and bear case of $350.52. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 14% WACC is $357.33.
How is the Applied Materials Inc 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The AMAT 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the AMAT price target account for dilution?
Applied Materials Inc is projected to grow diluted share count from 794M to 798M by 2030 (a 1% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 1%.
What is the analyst consensus on AMAT stock?
40 analysts cover AMAT with an average 12-month price target of $509.63. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.