ALGN
Align Technology Inc
NASDAQ: ALGN · HEALTHCARE · MEDICAL INSTRUMENTS & SUPPLIES
$164.61
-0.33% today
Updated 2026-06-05
Market cap
$12.52B
P/E ratio
29.43
P/S ratio
3.06x
EPS (TTM)
$5.94
Dividend yield
—
52W range
$122 – $208
Volume
1.0M
Align Technology Inc (ALGN) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed ALGN price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$164.61
Today
Analyst consensus
$209.07
+27.01% · 12M
2030 Base
$55.30
-66.41% future
NPV today
$30.71
@ 14% WACC
16 analysts:
9 Buy4 Hold2 Sell
Management guidance
CEO Joseph Hogan and CFO John Morici guided FY2026 revenue to $4.18B (3.7% growth) with 100bps operating margin improvement targeting 3-4% full-year growth. Company emphasizes profitable growth over volume, with focus on DSO expansion internationally (Asia-Pacific, EMEA, Latin America showing double-digit growth) offsetting North American retail channel pressure. Comp Zero product launch and AI-powered digital dentistry platform expansion are core growth levers for 2027-2030.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
ALGN · Align Technology Inc · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$55.30
NPV today: $30.71
Base case (2030)
$55.30
NPV today: $30.71
Bull case (2030)
$55.30
NPV today: $30.71
WallStSmart.com
ALGN financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.0B | $4.3B | $4.8B | $5.3B | $5.9B | $6.5B |
| Revenue growth | 0.9% | 7.2% | 10.6% | 11.3% | 10.7% | 10.0% |
| Net margin | — | 19.8% | 20.7% | 21.2% | 21.4% | 21.6% |
| EPS | $10.52 | $11.80 | $13.45 | $15.20 | $16.85 | $18.50 |
| Diluted shares | — | 73M | 73M | 74M | 75M | 76M |
| Net debt | — | $-1.49B | $-2.07B | $-2.70B | $-3.41B | $-4.18B |
| P/S multiple | — | 1.8x | 1.8x | 1.8x | 1.8x | 1.8x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $20.59 | $28.13 | $36.41 | $45.45 | $55.30 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $6.5B | $6.5B | $6.5B |
| P/S multiple | — | — | — |
| Diluted shares | 76M | 76M | 76M |
| Net debt | $-4.18B | $-4.18B | $-4.18B |
| Implied P/E † | 3x | 3x | 3x |
| 2030 Price | $55.30 | $55.30 | $55.30 |
| NPV @ 14% | $30.71 | $30.71 | $30.71 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because ALGN is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $55.30 base case
ALGN catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ Comp Zero product expansion driving Invisalign utilization increase and patient conversion
+ International DSO penetration in Asia-Pacific, EMEA, Latin America (double-digit growth regions)
+ AI-powered digital dentistry platform integration (ClinCheck, Virtual Care, practice management partnerships)
+ New $200M manufacturing facility in Hyderabad, India reducing COGS and enabling margin expansion
+ iTero scanner adoption acceleration and ecosystem lock-in through integrated digital workflow
+ Financing options and practice management system integrations reducing friction in patient conversion
Key risks
- North American retail channel demand pressure from independent doctors competing with DSOs
- Macroeconomic sensitivity to discretionary orthodontic spending and consumer financing constraints
- Competitive intensity from 3M, CareCredit, and emerging clear aligner makers in lower-cost markets
- Foreign exchange headwinds offsetting international growth (EMEA/APAC currency volatility)
- Case start deceleration despite product innovation if economic sentiment deteriorates
- Regulatory risk in international markets and reimbursement/insurance coverage changes
Methodology · Align Technology Inc 2030 stock forecast model
Align Technology Inc 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 16 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (6% cumulative for ALGN by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($-4.18B by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 14% WACC (CAPM: beta 1.695) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear — / base — / bull — |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: June 12, 2026.
ALGN price target FAQ
What is the ALGN price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's Align Technology Inc 2030 base case is $55.30 per share, with a bull case of $55.30 and bear case of $55.30. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 14% WACC is $30.71.
How is the Align Technology Inc 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The ALGN 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the ALGN price target account for dilution?
Align Technology Inc is projected to grow diluted share count from 72M to 76M by 2030 (a 6% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 6%.
What is the analyst consensus on ALGN stock?
16 analysts cover ALGN with an average 12-month price target of $209.07. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.