AJG
Arthur J Gallagher & Co
NYSE: AJG · FINANCIAL SERVICES · INSURANCE BROKERS
$218.69
-1.00% today
Updated 2026-06-12
Market cap
$52.87B
P/E ratio
33.30
P/S ratio
3.72x
EPS (TTM)
$6.18
Dividend yield
1.29%
52W range
$191 – $334
Volume
1.9M
Arthur J Gallagher & Co (AJG) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed AJG price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$218.69
Today
Analyst consensus
$275.50
+25.98% · 12M
2030 Base
—
— future
NPV today
—
@ — WACC
23 analysts:
7 Buy7 Hold0 Sell
Management guidance
Management has not provided explicit multi-year revenue targets through 2030 in available earnings call data. However, Q4 2025 results showed 20.66% YoY revenue growth ($13.94B TTM) with strong organic growth and continued M&A momentum. Management expressed confidence in sustained revenue and earnings growth driven by increasing insurance demand from emerging risks and ongoing acquisition integration.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
AJG · Arthur J Gallagher & Co · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
—
NPV today: —
Base case (2030)
—
NPV today: —
Bull case (2030)
—
NPV today: —
WallStSmart.com
AJG financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $13.9B | $17.0B | $18.6B | $20.2B | $21.9B | $23.6B |
| Revenue growth | 20.7% | 30.7% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 8.0% |
| Net margin | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| EPS | $10.70 | $13.39 | $15.02 | $17.50 | $19.20 | $21.00 |
| Diluted shares | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net debt | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| P/S multiple | — | 2.0x | 2.0x | 2.0x | 2.0x | 2.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $783.40 | $870.44 | $935.72 | $1,022.77 | $1,109.81 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $23.6B | $23.6B | $23.6B |
| P/S multiple | 1.0x | 2.0x | 4.0x |
| Diluted shares | 0M | 0M | 0M |
| Net debt | — | — | — |
| Implied P/E † | — | — | — |
| 2030 Price | $— | $— | $— |
| NPV @ — | $— | $— | $— |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because AJG is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $— base case
AJG catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ Continued M&A execution: Recent acquisitions (International Insurance Brokers Australia, S Philips Surety, Hunt Financial, 3D Advisors) demonstrate aggressive growth strategy with multiple deals per quarter
+ Organic growth acceleration: Strong Q4 2025 results (20.66% revenue growth, 33.58% Q4 sequential growth) suggest pricing power and market share gains in retail and wholesale segments
+ Increased insurance demand from emerging risks: Management cited growing customer need for coverage due to new catastrophic risks, expanding total addressable market
+ AI-driven efficiency gains: Despite near-term AI disintermediation concerns, internal AI adoption (82% positive feedback per internal survey) could improve margins 50-100 bps annually
Key risks
- AI disintermediation concerns: Recent sell-off driven by investor fears that AI agents will replace human insurance brokers, potentially capping organic growth at 3-5% vs. historical 10-12%
- Valuation compression: P/E of 37.9x significantly above industry average; any growth miss triggers multiple contraction; stock down 31% YoY despite revenue beat
- M&A execution and integration risk: Rapid acquisition pace increases integration complexity, retention risk, and potential goodwill impairment if synergies not realized
- Interest rate sensitivity: Rising rates increase cost of debt (EV/EBITDA 18.6x, Debt/Equity 0.58x) and could pressure M&A pace; already facing debt coverage concerns per analyst notes
Methodology · Arthur J Gallagher & Co 2030 stock forecast model
Arthur J Gallagher & Co 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 23 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (-100% cumulative for AJG by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory (— by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using — WACC (sector fallback) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 1.0x / base 2.0x / bull 4.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: April 7, 2026.
AJG price target FAQ
How is the Arthur J Gallagher & Co 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The AJG 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
What is the analyst consensus on AJG stock?
23 analysts cover AJG with an average 12-month price target of $275.50. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.