WallStSmart
AJG

Arthur J Gallagher & Co

NYSE: AJG · FINANCIAL SERVICES · INSURANCE BROKERS

$211.81
-0.75% today

Updated 2026-04-29

Market cap
$55.37B
P/E ratio
37.46
P/S ratio
4.26x
EPS (TTM)
$5.75
Dividend yield
1.19%
52W range
$194 – $348
Volume
2.1M
OverviewPrice TargetsFinancialsValuationInsidersEarnings

Arthur J Gallagher & Co (AJG) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030

Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.

Price target summary

Current
$211.81
Consensus
$275.50
+30.07%
2030 Target
$1,109.81
+423.96%
DCF
—
—
23 analysts:
7 Buy7 Hold0 Sell

Management guidance

Management has not provided explicit multi-year revenue targets through 2030 in available earnings call data. However, Q4 2025 results showed 20.66% YoY revenue growth ($13.94B TTM) with strong organic growth and continued M&A momentum. Management expressed confidence in sustained revenue and earnings growth driven by increasing insurance demand from emerging risks and ongoing acquisition integration.

Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence

Revenue & price projection

Actual revenue Projected revenue Base case Bull to bear range
Bull case (2030)
$1,849.69
$23.6B Rev × 20x P/S
Base case (2030)
$1,109.81
$23.6B Rev × 12x P/S
Bear case (2030)
$739.87
$23.6B Rev × 8x P/S

Financial forecast — research-backed

Metric2023202420252026 (E)2027 (E)2028 (E)2029 (E)2030 (E)
Revenue$10.1B$11.6B$13.9B$17.0B$18.6B$20.2B$21.9B$23.6B
Revenue growth—14.7%20.7%30.7%9.2%8.8%8.4%8.0%
EPS$8.89$10.14$9.75$13.39$15.02$17.50$19.20$21.00
P/S ratio———12.0x12.0x12.0x12.0x12.0x
Implied price———$783.40$870.44$935.72$1,022.77$1,109.81

Catalysts & risks

Growth catalysts
+ Continued M&A execution: Recent acquisitions (International Insurance Brokers Australia, S Philips Surety, Hunt Financial, 3D Advisors) demonstrate aggressive growth strategy with multiple deals per quarter
+ Organic growth acceleration: Strong Q4 2025 results (20.66% revenue growth, 33.58% Q4 sequential growth) suggest pricing power and market share gains in retail and wholesale segments
+ Increased insurance demand from emerging risks: Management cited growing customer need for coverage due to new catastrophic risks, expanding total addressable market
+ AI-driven efficiency gains: Despite near-term AI disintermediation concerns, internal AI adoption (82% positive feedback per internal survey) could improve margins 50-100 bps annually
Key risks
- AI disintermediation concerns: Recent sell-off driven by investor fears that AI agents will replace human insurance brokers, potentially capping organic growth at 3-5% vs. historical 10-12%
- Valuation compression: P/E of 37.9x significantly above industry average; any growth miss triggers multiple contraction; stock down 31% YoY despite revenue beat
- M&A execution and integration risk: Rapid acquisition pace increases integration complexity, retention risk, and potential goodwill impairment if synergies not realized
- Interest rate sensitivity: Rising rates increase cost of debt (EV/EBITDA 18.6x, Debt/Equity 0.58x) and could pressure M&A pace; already facing debt coverage concerns per analyst notes

Methodology

Arthur J Gallagher & Co's forward estimates are derived from AI-powered research synthesis combining analyst consensus from 23 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts from industry research. Revenue and EPS projections use analyst consensus where available and conservative extrapolation with growth deceleration for outer years. Price targets are calculated using a tiered Price-to-Sales (P/S) methodology, where the P/S multiple is determined by the projected revenue growth rate.

WallStSmart proprietary research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: April 7, 2026.