AIT
Applied Industrial Technologies
NYSE: AIT · INDUSTRIALS · INDUSTRIAL DISTRIBUTION
$310.55
+0.52% today
Updated 2026-06-05
Market cap
$11.83B
P/E ratio
30.20
P/S ratio
2.45x
EPS (TTM)
$10.60
Dividend yield
0.59%
52W range
$222 – $326
Volume
0.2M
Applied Industrial Technologies (AIT) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed AIT price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$310.55
Today
Analyst consensus
$330.00
+6.26% · 12M
2030 Base
$203.58
-34.45% future
NPV today
$135.11
@ 9% WACC
9 analysts:
5 Buy1 Hold0 Sell
Management guidance
AIT management raised FY2026 guidance to EPS of $10.64-$10.75 and sales growth of 7.2%-7.7% (implying ~$4.95B revenue). Q3 2026 showed 7.3% organic sales growth with record EBITDA. Management emphasized confidence in future growth through strategic acquisitions, organic expansion, and share repurchases, but provided no explicit 2027-2030 revenue targets in public statements.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
AIT · Applied Industrial Technologies · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$203.58
NPV today: $135.11
Base case (2030)
$203.58
NPV today: $135.11
Bull case (2030)
$368.07
NPV today: $244.28
WallStSmart.com
AIT financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.6B | $5.0B | $5.2B | $5.5B | $5.8B | $6.1B |
| Revenue growth | 1.9% | 8.5% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.1% |
| Net margin | — | 8.0% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.6% |
| EPS | $5.14 | $10.75 | $11.90 | $12.70 | $13.35 | $14.10 |
| Diluted shares | — | 37M | 37M | 37M | 37M | 37M |
| Net debt | — | $-123.42M | $-430.12M | $-753.80M | $-1.09B | $-1.45B |
| P/S multiple | — | 1.0x | 1.0x | 1.0x | 1.0x | 1.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $137.13 | $153.11 | $169.51 | $186.19 | $203.58 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $6.1B | $6.1B | $6.1B |
| P/S multiple | 1.0x | 1.0x | 2.0x |
| Diluted shares | 37M | 37M | 37M |
| Net debt | $-1.45B | $-1.45B | $-1.45B |
| Implied P/E † | 14x | 14x | 26x |
| 2030 Price | $203.58 | $203.58 | $368.07 |
| NPV @ 9% | $135.11 | $135.11 | $244.28 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because AIT is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $203.58 base case
AIT catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ Engineered Solutions segment acceleration (outperforming Service Center in Q3 2026)
+ Strategic M&A execution driving margin expansion and customer wallet share gains
+ Industrial automation and automation-driven capex cycle benefiting both segments through 2027-2028
+ Share repurchase program (3M shares authorized) supporting EPS growth amid moderate revenue growth
+ Continued pricing power in industrial distribution with improving mix toward higher-margin solutions
Key risks
- Valuation stretched at 28.9x P/E (26x forward) vs. historical 19x average — limited margin of safety if growth disappoints
- Industrial end-market cyclicality; legacy sector demand volatility (as noted in Q3 call) could decelerate organic growth below 5% in 2027-2028
- M&A execution risk: guidance heavily dependent on bolt-on acquisitions; integration delays or overpaid deals could erode margins
- Insider selling signal: VP sold 8,000 shares in May 2026 near 52-week highs; suggests insider view of fair value below current price
- Market share gains dependent on distributor consolidation premium; competitive intensity from larger peers (WESCO, FERG) with superior scale
Methodology · Applied Industrial Technologies 2030 stock forecast model
Applied Industrial Technologies 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 9 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (1% cumulative for AIT by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($-1.45B by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 9% WACC (CAPM: beta 0.864) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 1.0x / base 1.0x / bull 2.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 21, 2026.
AIT price target FAQ
What is the AIT price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's Applied Industrial Technologies 2030 base case is $203.58 per share, with a bull case of $368.07 and bear case of $203.58. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 9% WACC is $135.11.
How is the Applied Industrial Technologies 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The AIT 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the AIT price target account for dilution?
Applied Industrial Technologies is projected to grow diluted share count from 37M to 37M by 2030 (a 1% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 1%.
What is the analyst consensus on AIT stock?
9 analysts cover AIT with an average 12-month price target of $330.00. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.