AGI
Alamos Gold Inc
NYSE: AGI · BASIC MATERIALS · GOLD
$43.38
-8.00% today
Updated 2026-06-05
Market cap
$14.70B
P/E ratio
13.94
P/S ratio
7.09x
EPS (TTM)
$2.51
Dividend yield
0.32%
52W range
$24 – $55
Volume
3.1M
Alamos Gold Inc (AGI) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed AGI price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$43.38
Today
Analyst consensus
$60.50
+39.47% · 12M
2030 Base
$68.59
+58.11% future
NPV today
$41.36
@ 12% WACC
13 analysts:
10 Buy1 Hold0 Sell
Management guidance
Alamos Gold provided three-year operating guidance on February 4, 2026, outlining 46% production growth by 2028. The Island Gold District Expansion to 20,000 TPD targets 1 million ounces/year production at significantly lower costs, with 69% after-tax IRR and $12.2B NPV at $4,500/oz gold price. Management targets achieving one of Canada's largest and lowest-cost gold mines.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
AGI · Alamos Gold Inc · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$36.01
NPV today: $21.71
Base case (2030)
$68.59
NPV today: $41.36
Bull case (2030)
$133.74
NPV today: $80.64
WallStSmart.com
AGI financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.8B | $3.3B | $4.1B | $5.2B | $6.0B | $6.9B |
| Revenue growth | 34.6% | 79.6% | 26.2% | 25.6% | 17.5% | 13.6% |
| Net margin | — | 51.1% | 52.3% | 53.6% | 54.7% | 55.9% |
| EPS | $1.67 | $3.95 | $5.10 | $6.55 | $7.85 | $9.10 |
| Diluted shares | — | 420M | 421M | 421M | 422M | 422M |
| Net debt | — | $43.79M | $-232.24M | $-578.96M | $-986.27M | $-1.45B |
| P/S multiple | — | 4.0x | 4.0x | 4.0x | 4.0x | 4.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $30.82 | $39.52 | $50.28 | $59.73 | $68.59 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $6.9B | $6.9B | $6.9B |
| P/S multiple | 2.0x | 4.0x | 8.0x |
| Diluted shares | 422M | 422M | 422M |
| Net debt | $-1.45B | $-1.45B | $-1.45B |
| Implied P/E † | 4x | 8x | 15x |
| 2030 Price | $36.01 | $68.59 | $133.74 |
| NPV @ 12% | $21.71 | $41.36 | $80.64 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because AGI is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $68.59 base case
AGI catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ Island Gold District Expansion Phase 3+ completion ramping to 20,000 TPD by 2028, driving 46% production growth
+ Lynn Lake project and Mulatos District expansion converting exploration success into reserve growth and production
+ Gold prices approaching $4,700/oz creating favorable operating leverage with 51.2% current profit margins expanding further
+ Investor day (Feb 2026) and technical reports validating $12.2B NPV expansion economics, supporting analyst upgrades
Key risks
- Execution risk on Island Gold expansion capex and ramp timeline; construction delays could push production growth to 2029
- Gold price assumption sensitivity: NPV/margins highly leveraged to gold spot; reversion below $4,000/oz would compress revenue significantly
- Operational disruptions: Q1 2026 saw weather impacts and production below prior year despite record revenue, indicating production volatility
- Regulatory/permitting delays on expansion projects and Lynn Lake development could defer production growth into 2029-2030
Methodology · Alamos Gold Inc 2030 stock forecast model
Alamos Gold Inc 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 13 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (1% cumulative for AGI by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($-1.45B by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 12% WACC (CAPM: beta 1.289) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 2.0x / base 4.0x / bull 8.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 20, 2026.
AGI price target FAQ
What is the AGI price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's Alamos Gold Inc 2030 base case is $68.59 per share, with a bull case of $133.74 and bear case of $36.01. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 12% WACC is $41.36.
How is the Alamos Gold Inc 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The AGI 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the AGI price target account for dilution?
Alamos Gold Inc is projected to grow diluted share count from 420M to 422M by 2030 (a 1% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 1%.
What is the analyst consensus on AGI stock?
13 analysts cover AGI with an average 12-month price target of $60.50. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.