ADI
Analog Devices Inc
NASDAQ: ADI · TECHNOLOGY · SEMICONDUCTORS
$417.79
+1.37% today
Updated 2026-06-12
Market cap
$206.14B
P/E ratio
62.88
P/S ratio
16.18x
EPS (TTM)
$6.73
Dividend yield
1.04%
52W range
$214 – $440
Volume
4.0M
Analog Devices Inc (ADI) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed ADI price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$417.79
Today
Analyst consensus
$382.85
-8.36% · 12M
2030 Base
$643.01
+53.91% future
NPV today
$395.80
@ 11% WACC
31 analysts:
27 Buy4 Hold0 Sell
Management guidance
ADI management has not provided explicit multi-year revenue targets through 2030 in public guidance. Most recent guidance (Q2 2026 earnings) focuses on near-term strength: Q3 2026 revenue guided above seasonal expectations driven by AI and industrial demand. CEO Roche has emphasized AI infrastructure buildout and power delivery as strategic growth vectors, with the $1.5B Empower Semiconductor acquisition (announced May 2026) signaling commitment to AI power management TAM through end of decade.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
ADI · Analog Devices Inc · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$310.19
NPV today: $190.94
Base case (2030)
$643.01
NPV today: $395.80
Bull case (2030)
$1,242.09
NPV today: $764.56
WallStSmart.com
ADI financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $11.0B | $15.9B | $20.9B | $25.3B | $29.4B | $32.7B |
| Revenue growth | 16.9% | 44.8% | 30.8% | 21.4% | 15.9% | 11.2% |
| Net margin | — | 36.9% | 36.0% | 36.2% | 35.8% | 35.8% |
| EPS | $7.08 | $12.05 | $15.38 | $18.74 | $21.45 | $23.86 |
| Diluted shares | — | 489M | 489M | 490M | 490M | 491M |
| Net debt | — | $-2.77B | $-6.39B | $-10.79B | $-15.89B | $-21.55B |
| P/S multiple | — | 9.0x | 9.0x | 9.0x | 9.0x | 9.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $299.41 | $397.03 | $487.77 | $571.86 | $643.01 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $32.7B | $32.7B | $32.7B |
| P/S multiple | 4.0x | 9.0x | 18.0x |
| Diluted shares | 491M | 491M | 491M |
| Net debt | $-21.55B | $-21.55B | $-21.55B |
| Implied P/E † | 13x | 27x | 52x |
| 2030 Price | $310.19 | $643.01 | $1,242.09 |
| NPV @ 11% | $190.94 | $395.80 | $764.56 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because ADI is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $643.01 base case
ADI catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ Empower Semiconductor integration (closes H2 2026): expands AI power delivery TAM and margin profile; could unlock $500M-$1B+ incremental revenue by 2029-2030
+ AI infrastructure buildout acceleration: hyperscaler capex (Meta $60B+, Microsoft $80B+, others) drives sustained demand for ADI analog/mixed-signal and power management chips through 2028-2029
+ Industrial IoT and edge AI proliferation: ADI's industrial segment (automotive, factory automation, renewable energy) offers 20-30% CAGR runway independent of AI cycle
+ Operating leverage: current 29.8% operating margin has 200-400 bps expansion potential as revenue scales and Empower synergies realize (target 32-34% by 2029)
+ M&A and tuck-in consolidation: ADI's balance sheet ($2.9B cash, $8.7B debt, net debt ratio 2.1x) supports bolt-on acquisitions in 2027-2028
Key risks
- AI capex normalization / cyclical downturn: if hyperscaler spending decelerates post-2027, ADI's 35-40% AI exposure could compress revenue growth to 10-15% in 2029-2030
- Competitive intensification: QCOM, MRVL, TXN, and private fabs (TSMC leading edge for analog) could erode ADI's pricing power and market share in power management
- Geopolitical / China exposure: ADI generates ~25-30% revenue from Greater China; tariffs, export controls, or decoupling could force revenue reset of -5-10%
- Integration execution risk: Empower acquisition must deliver synergies by 2027-2028; failure would result in -$300-500M revenue guidance miss by 2029
- Valuation: at 34x forward P/E (vs. NVDA 45x, QCOM 22x), ADI's premium assumes consistent 30%+ growth through 2028; any miss triggers sharp multiple compression
Methodology · Analog Devices Inc 2030 stock forecast model
Analog Devices Inc 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 31 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (1% cumulative for ADI by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($-21.55B by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 11% WACC (CAPM: beta 1.194) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 4.0x / base 9.0x / bull 18.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 20, 2026.
ADI price target FAQ
What is the ADI price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's Analog Devices Inc 2030 base case is $643.01 per share, with a bull case of $1,242.09 and bear case of $310.19. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 11% WACC is $395.80.
How is the Analog Devices Inc 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The ADI 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the ADI price target account for dilution?
Analog Devices Inc is projected to grow diluted share count from 487M to 491M by 2030 (a 1% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 1%.
What is the analyst consensus on ADI stock?
31 analysts cover ADI with an average 12-month price target of $382.85. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.