ADEA
ADEIA CORP
NASDAQ: ADEA · TECHNOLOGY · SOFTWARE - APPLICATION
$31.84
-10.44% today
Updated 2026-06-05
Market cap
$2.95B
P/E ratio
24.51
P/S ratio
6.40x
EPS (TTM)
$1.09
Dividend yield
0.74%
52W range
$12 – $34
Volume
1.9M
ADEIA CORP (ADEA) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed ADEA price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$31.84
Today
Analyst consensus
$33.60
+5.53% · 12M
2030 Base
$31.22
-1.95% future
NPV today
$19.87
@ 10% WACC
6 analysts:
5 Buy0 Hold0 Sell
Management guidance
CEO Paul Davis (stepping down Q4 2026) has reiterated full-year 2026 financial outlook but has not disclosed specific revenue targets beyond 2026. Company signed 8 license agreements in Q1 2026 alone (AMD, Microsoft, L'Oréal, Google renewal) indicating strong recurring licensing revenue momentum. Management focused on capital allocation (debt reduction of $28M, $10M stock buyback in Q1) and margin expansion, with 60% adjusted EBITDA margin achieved in Q1 2026.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
ADEA · ADEIA CORP · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$22.74
NPV today: $14.47
Base case (2030)
$31.22
NPV today: $19.87
Bull case (2030)
$65.17
NPV today: $41.47
WallStSmart.com
ADEA financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $0.4B | $0.5B | $0.6B | $0.7B | $0.8B | $1.0B |
| Revenue growth | 17.9% | 4.9% | 23.9% | 22.3% | 19.4% | 15.6% |
| Net margin | — | 35.9% | 38.0% | 39.3% | 39.5% | 39.6% |
| EPS | $1.65 | $1.50 | $1.95 | $2.45 | $2.92 | $3.36 |
| Diluted shares | — | 111M | 112M | 113M | 114M | 115M |
| Net debt | — | $-86.40M | $-193.43M | $-324.44M | $-480.89M | $-661.88M |
| P/S multiple | — | 3.0x | 3.0x | 3.0x | 3.0x | 3.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $13.31 | $17.11 | $21.55 | $26.38 | $31.22 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.0B | $1.0B | $1.0B |
| P/S multiple | 2.0x | 3.0x | 7.0x |
| Diluted shares | 115M | 115M | 115M |
| Net debt | $-661.88M | $-661.88M | $-661.88M |
| Implied P/E † | 7x | 9x | 19x |
| 2030 Price | $22.74 | $31.22 | $65.17 |
| NPV @ 10% | $14.47 | $19.87 | $41.47 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because ADEA is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $31.22 base case
ADEA catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ Multi-year IP license renewals and new deals with hyperscalers (Google, AMD, Microsoft, L'Oréal, Disney) providing visibility into recurring revenue through 2027-2029
+ Semiconductor IP licensing expansion opportunity as foundries scale advanced packaging (hybrid bonding with UMC partnership)
+ CEO succession transition by Q4 2026 — new leadership could unlock strategic M&A or accelerate commercial expansion
+ Patent litigation settlements and infringement cases (DISH, potential others) generating one-time licensing revenue and establishing IP strength
Key risks
- CEO Paul Davis departure by Q4 2026 creates near-term uncertainty; search for successor is underway but no announcement yet
- Heavy customer concentration — Google, Disney, and hyperscaler customers represent material portion of recurring revenue; loss of one major customer could create 15-25% revenue headwind
- IP licensing revenue model is lumpy — large upfront recognition followed by periods of lower revenue visibility; difficult to model smooth growth
- Competitor pressure from in-house patent development by hyperscalers (Google, Microsoft, Amazon) could reduce licensing TAM over 5-year horizon
- Insider selling signal — Chief Legal Officer sold $3.2M in shares (99,342 shares @ $31.75) on May 13, 2026, suggesting some caution within senior ranks
Methodology · ADEIA CORP 2030 stock forecast model
ADEIA CORP 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 6 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (4% cumulative for ADEA by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($-661.88M by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 10% WACC (CAPM: beta 1.055) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 2.0x / base 3.0x / bull 7.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 20, 2026.
ADEA price target FAQ
What is the ADEA price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's ADEIA CORP 2030 base case is $31.22 per share, with a bull case of $65.17 and bear case of $22.74. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 10% WACC is $19.87.
How is the ADEIA CORP 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The ADEA 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the ADEA price target account for dilution?
ADEIA CORP is projected to grow diluted share count from 110M to 115M by 2030 (a 4% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 4%.
What is the analyst consensus on ADEA stock?
6 analysts cover ADEA with an average 12-month price target of $33.60. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.