ACMR
Acm Research Inc
NASDAQ: ACMR · TECHNOLOGY · SEMICONDUCTOR EQUIPMENT & MATERIALS
$103.17
-6.10% today
Updated 2026-06-22
Market cap
$6.49B
P/E ratio
71.72
P/S ratio
6.76x
EPS (TTM)
$1.31
Dividend yield
—
52W range
$23 – $99
Volume
1.6M
Acm Research Inc (ACMR) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed ACMR price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$103.17
Today
Analyst consensus
$56.33
-45.40% · 12M
2030 Base
$63.73
-38.23% future
NPV today
$34.14
@ 14% WACC
10 analysts:
2 Buy2 Hold0 Sell
Management guidance
CEO David Wang guided FY2026 revenue of $1.08B–$1.175B (20–30% growth). Q1 2026 beat expectations with $231M revenue (+34% YoY) and $241M shipments (+54% YoY), driven by ECP and advanced packaging demand. Management emphasized new product launches (PECVD SiCN, ACM Planetary Family), market share gains, and international expansion (Hong Kong listing of Shanghai subsidiary) as growth drivers through 2026–2027.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
ACMR · Acm Research Inc · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$19.07
NPV today: $10.22
Base case (2030)
$63.73
NPV today: $34.14
Bull case (2030)
$197.71
NPV today: $105.91
WallStSmart.com
ACMR financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $0.9B | $1.1B | $1.5B | $1.9B | $2.4B | $2.8B |
| Revenue growth | 15.2% | 25.4% | 34.5% | 28.3% | 22.1% | 18.5% |
| Net margin | — | 10.5% | 11.4% | 11.9% | 12.0% | 12.1% |
| EPS | $1.30 | $1.93 | $2.78 | $3.71 | $4.54 | $5.40 |
| Diluted shares | — | 62M | 62M | 62M | 63M | 63M |
| Net debt | — | $186.33M | $436.97M | $758.51M | $1.15B | $1.62B |
| P/S multiple | — | 2.0x | 2.0x | 2.0x | 2.0x | 2.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $33.64 | $41.93 | $50.30 | $57.44 | $63.73 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.8B | $2.8B | $2.8B |
| P/S multiple | 1.0x | 2.0x | 5.0x |
| Diluted shares | 63M | 63M | 63M |
| Net debt | $1.62B | $1.62B | $1.62B |
| Implied P/E † | 4x | 12x | 37x |
| 2030 Price | $19.07 | $63.73 | $197.71 |
| NPV @ 14% | $10.22 | $34.14 | $105.91 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because ACMR is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $63.73 base case
ACMR catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ Q1 2026 revenue beat (+34% YoY) and maintained FY2026 guidance ($1.08–$1.175B); track execution to upper end of range
+ Hong Kong IPO of ACM Research (Shanghai) subsidiary — planned H-share listing to unlock valuation and expand capital base; anchor investors (Kerrisdale, Steamboat) committed $100M
+ New product ramp (PECVD SiCN system, advanced packaging equipment) — first customer shipments in Q1 2026; TAM expansion into advanced nodes and chiplet packaging
+ Hyperscaler capex recovery — Meta ($60B+ AI), Microsoft ($80B+ AI infrastructure), TSMC fab expansion drive semiconductor equipment demand through 2027–2028
+ $150M capital raise (May 2026) — strengthens balance sheet for R&D and global manufacturing capacity; supports aggressive market penetration
Key risks
- China export controls and geopolitical risk — ACMR has significant China exposure (Shanghai subsidiary, customer concentration); US semiconductor export restrictions could limit TAM and revenue visibility
- Margin compression — Q1 2026 net income down 15% YoY despite 34% revenue growth; rising R&D spend, capacity investment, and mix shift to lower-margin products pressure profitability
- Competitive intensity — LRCX (Lam Research), AMAT (Applied Materials) dominate semiconductor equipment market; ACMR's smaller scale limits pricing power and R&D budget relative to mega-cap peers
- Customer concentration and cyclicality — semiconductor capex cycles are volatile; customer concentration (foundries, memory makers) exposes ACMR to fab spending pullbacks
- Valuation risk — P/E of 50x+ and P/S of 4.9x imply very high growth expectations already priced in; any deceleration or margin miss could trigger sharp correction
Methodology · Acm Research Inc 2030 stock forecast model
Acm Research Inc 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 10 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (-2% cumulative for ACMR by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($1.62B by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 14% WACC (CAPM: beta 1.821) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 1.0x / base 2.0x / bull 5.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 21, 2026.
ACMR price target FAQ
What is the ACMR price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's Acm Research Inc 2030 base case is $63.73 per share, with a bull case of $197.71 and bear case of $19.07. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 14% WACC is $34.14.
How is the Acm Research Inc 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The ACMR 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the ACMR price target account for dilution?
Acm Research Inc is projected to grow diluted share count from 64M to 63M by 2030 (a -2% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately -2%.
What is the analyst consensus on ACMR stock?
10 analysts cover ACMR with an average 12-month price target of $56.33. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.