American Airlines Group
NASDAQ: AAL · INDUSTRIALS · AIRLINES
Updated 2026-08-04
American Airlines Group (AAL) Stock Valuation Analysis
Fair value estimate, historical valuation range, and quality signals for AAL.
Current price exceeds what fundamentals support. Risk/reward skewed unfavorably.
AAL historical valuation range
Where current P/E sits in AAL's own 5Y range.
AAL intrinsic value (DCF)
DCF-based fair value estimate vs current market price.
Intrinsic value calculated using discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on projected free cash flows, discount rate, and terminal growth assumptions. A positive margin of safety indicates the current price is below estimated fair value, providing a cushion against estimation error.
AAL valuation signals
Quick-read green flags, caution flags, and risks based on current metrics.
P/E Ratio — History
P/S Ratio — History
Current: 0.17x
Is AAL overvalued in 2026?
American Airlines Group (AAL) currently trades at $16.56 per share with a market capitalization of $10,108,281,000.00. Based on our multi-factor framework, the stock appears richly valued with a Smart Value Score of 47/100. This score blends growth quality, financial health, and price attractiveness into a single institutional-grade read.
AAL currently has no meaningful P/E ratio, which typically signals that the company is unprofitable, near breakeven, or emerging from a loss-making period. With a P/S ratio of 0.2x, the market is valuing the company primarily on its revenue rather than its earnings.
Looking at its own history, AAL is currently trading cheaper than 100% of the last 5Y on P/E. This places it in the 0th percentile of its historical range, a level that has historically coincided with attractive entry points.
Our discounted cash flow model estimates AAL's intrinsic value at $21.43 per share, against the current market price of $16.56. This implies a margin of safety of +33.04%. A meaningful cushion exists against model error, making this a reasonable risk-adjusted entry.
Financial quality is a concern. The Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 flags weakening fundamentals that deserve closer scrutiny before the valuation case can be fully trusted.
Bottom line: AAL appears richly valued on our framework, with a Smart Value Score of 47/100. At current levels the risk/reward is skewed against the buyer. A materially lower price or significant operational improvement would be needed to change the picture.
Frequently asked questions
Is AAL overvalued?
AAL scores 47/100 on our Smart Value Score (Grade C), a weak overall profile. The DCF also shows a positive margin of safety, so price and fundamentals line up reasonably well.
What is AAL's fair value?
Our DCF model estimates AAL's intrinsic value at $21.43 per share, versus the current price of $16.56, a margin of safety of +33.04%. Fair value is the present value of the cash flows we project the business to produce, so a price below it means the market is pricing the stock below that conservative estimate.
What P/E ratio does AAL trade at?
AAL does not have a meaningful P/E right now, usually a sign of unprofitability or an earnings transition. For unprofitable growth names, price-to-sales is the more useful gauge.
Is AAL a buy based on valuation?
Our Smart Value rating for AAL is Sell, from a Smart Value Score of 47/100 that blends growth, quality, and valuation. The profile skews cautious, and a better price or clearer operating improvement would strengthen the case. This is research to inform your decision, not personalized financial advice.
How does AAL's valuation compare to its history?
On P/E, AAL sits in the 0th percentile of its own 5Y range, historically cheap relative to where it has traded. A low percentile means today's multiple is near the bottom of its historical band.
What is AAL's Smart Value Score?
AAL's Smart Value Score is 47/100. It is a proprietary WallStSmart metric blending growth quality, financial health, and valuation into a single 0-100 read, and scores above 75 are rare, signaling strong multi-factor alignment.