American Financial Group Inc (AFG)vsProgressive Corp (PGR)
AFG
American Financial Group Inc
$126.85
-0.69%
FINANCIAL SERVICES · Cap: $10.64B
PGR
Progressive Corp
$202.84
-1.63%
FINANCIAL SERVICES · Cap: $120.67B
Smart Verdict
WallStSmart Research — data-driven comparison
Progressive Corp generates 1004% more annual revenue ($87.64B vs $7.94B). PGR leads profitability with a 12.9% profit margin vs 10.6%. AFG appears more attractively valued with a PEG of 2.30. PGR earns a higher WallStSmart Score of 67/100 (B-).
AFG
Buy61
out of 100
Grade: C+
PGR
Strong Buy67
out of 100
Grade: B-
Intrinsic Value Comparison
Multi-model valuation · Graham Formula
Margin of Safety
+64.4%
Fair Value
$362.07
Current Price
$126.85
$235.22 discount
Margin of Safety
+76.9%
Fair Value
$900.43
Current Price
$202.84
$697.59 discount
Key Strengths & Concerns
Side-by-side fundamental analysis
Key Strengths
Attractively priced relative to earnings
Reasonable price relative to book value
Strong operational efficiency at 21.3%
Attractively priced relative to earnings
Every $100 of equity generates 41 in profit
Large-cap with strong market position
Earnings expanding 25.2% YoY
Generating 3.0B in free cash flow
Areas to Watch
Expensive relative to growth rate
Weak financial health signals
Revenue declined 3.4%
Expensive relative to growth rate
Comparative Analysis Report
WallStSmart ResearchBull Case : AFG
The strongest argument for AFG centers on P/E Ratio, Price/Book, Operating Margin.
Bull Case : PGR
The strongest argument for PGR centers on P/E Ratio, Return on Equity, Market Cap. Revenue growth of 12.2% demonstrates continued momentum.
Bear Case : AFG
The primary concerns for AFG are PEG Ratio, Piotroski F-Score, Revenue Growth.
Bear Case : PGR
The primary concerns for PGR are PEG Ratio.
Key Dynamics to Monitor
AFG profiles as a declining stock while PGR is a value play — different risk/reward profiles.
AFG carries more volatility with a beta of 0.67 — expect wider price swings.
PGR is growing revenue faster at 12.2% — sustainability is the question.
PGR generates stronger free cash flow (3.0B), providing more financial flexibility.
Bottom Line
PGR scores higher overall (67/100 vs 61/100) and 12.2% revenue growth. AFG offers better value entry with a 64.4% margin of safety. Both earn "Strong Buy" and "Buy" ratings respectively — the choice depends on your investment horizon and risk tolerance.
This analysis is generated from publicly available financial data. Not financial advice.
American Financial Group Inc
FINANCIAL SERVICES · INSURANCE - PROPERTY & CASUALTY · USA
American Financial Group, Inc., an insurance holding company, offers property and casualty insurance products in the United States. The company is headquartered in Cincinnati, Ohio.
Progressive Corp
FINANCIAL SERVICES · INSURANCE - PROPERTY & CASUALTY · USA
The Progressive Corporation is an American insurance company, one of the largest providers of car insurance in the United States. The company insures motorcycles, boats, RVs, and commercial vehicles and provides home insurance through select companies.
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