WallStSmart

American Financial Group Inc (AFG)vsProgressive Corp (PGR)

VS

Smart Verdict

WallStSmart Research — data-driven comparison

Progressive Corp generates 1004% more annual revenue ($87.64B vs $7.94B). PGR leads profitability with a 12.9% profit margin vs 10.6%. AFG appears more attractively valued with a PEG of 2.30. PGR earns a higher WallStSmart Score of 67/100 (B-).

AFG

Buy

61

out of 100

Grade: C+

Growth: 5.3Profit: 6.5Value: 10.0Quality: 4.8
Piotroski: 3/9

PGR

Strong Buy

67

out of 100

Grade: B-

Growth: 8.0Profit: 7.5Value: 7.3Quality: 5.3
Piotroski: 4/9
IV

Intrinsic Value Comparison

Multi-model valuation · Graham Formula

AFGUndervalued (+64.4%)

Margin of Safety

+64.4%

Fair Value

$362.07

Current Price

$126.85

$235.22 discount

UndervaluedFair: $362.07Overvalued
PGRUndervalued (+76.9%)

Margin of Safety

+76.9%

Fair Value

$900.43

Current Price

$202.84

$697.59 discount

UndervaluedFair: $900.43Overvalued

Key Strengths & Concerns

Side-by-side fundamental analysis

Key Strengths

AFG3 strengths · Avg: 8.0/10
P/E RatioValuation
12.7x8/10

Attractively priced relative to earnings

Price/BookValuation
2.2x8/10

Reasonable price relative to book value

Operating MarginProfitability
21.3%8/10

Strong operational efficiency at 21.3%

PGR5 strengths · Avg: 9.0/10
P/E RatioValuation
10.7x10/10

Attractively priced relative to earnings

Return on EquityProfitability
40.5%10/10

Every $100 of equity generates 41 in profit

Market CapQuality
$120.67B9/10

Large-cap with strong market position

EPS GrowthGrowth
25.2%8/10

Earnings expanding 25.2% YoY

Free Cash FlowQuality
$3.05B8/10

Generating 3.0B in free cash flow

Areas to Watch

AFG3 concerns · Avg: 3.0/10
PEG RatioValuation
2.304/10

Expensive relative to growth rate

Piotroski F-ScoreQuality
3/93/10

Weak financial health signals

Revenue GrowthGrowth
-3.4%2/10

Revenue declined 3.4%

PGR1 concerns · Avg: 2.0/10
PEG RatioValuation
31.572/10

Expensive relative to growth rate

Comparative Analysis Report

WallStSmart Research

Bull Case : AFG

The strongest argument for AFG centers on P/E Ratio, Price/Book, Operating Margin.

Bull Case : PGR

The strongest argument for PGR centers on P/E Ratio, Return on Equity, Market Cap. Revenue growth of 12.2% demonstrates continued momentum.

Bear Case : AFG

The primary concerns for AFG are PEG Ratio, Piotroski F-Score, Revenue Growth.

Bear Case : PGR

The primary concerns for PGR are PEG Ratio.

Key Dynamics to Monitor

AFG profiles as a declining stock while PGR is a value play — different risk/reward profiles.

AFG carries more volatility with a beta of 0.67 — expect wider price swings.

PGR is growing revenue faster at 12.2% — sustainability is the question.

PGR generates stronger free cash flow (3.0B), providing more financial flexibility.

Bottom Line

PGR scores higher overall (67/100 vs 61/100) and 12.2% revenue growth. AFG offers better value entry with a 64.4% margin of safety. Both earn "Strong Buy" and "Buy" ratings respectively — the choice depends on your investment horizon and risk tolerance.

This analysis is generated from publicly available financial data. Not financial advice.

American Financial Group Inc

FINANCIAL SERVICES · INSURANCE - PROPERTY & CASUALTY · USA

American Financial Group, Inc., an insurance holding company, offers property and casualty insurance products in the United States. The company is headquartered in Cincinnati, Ohio.

Progressive Corp

FINANCIAL SERVICES · INSURANCE - PROPERTY & CASUALTY · USA

The Progressive Corporation is an American insurance company, one of the largest providers of car insurance in the United States. The company insures motorcycles, boats, RVs, and commercial vehicles and provides home insurance through select companies.

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